Are the factory muscle-car days over?

[ColdwaterHotrod]

link to article or read it below

 

http://www.themustangnews.com/fomoco_07/st-0607muscle.htm

 

 

06-03-07: Whether you buy into the Great Global Warming Swindle or not, the politicians America elected to Washington on the last go around certainly do. This combined with higher prices for gas that honestly aren’t going down again have brought a great deal of both legislative and market pressure on the American automakers to change. In the past couple of years and now into the future, they are going to be focusing on cars that pollute less and use less fuel as a matter of survival rather than will.

 

The Democrat controlled Congress, working hard to pay off their far left base is currently working on a sweeping new package of energy legislation that will dramatically increase the required Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFÉ) standards to numbers well beyond what we have today. The legislation in it’s current form will require that automakers increase the mile per gallon ratings of cars and trucks by a whopping 40% by 2020. This is the equivalent to a 9.0 earthquake hitting the city of Detroit.

 

What is loomingly frightful is that this legislation is headed for a slam dunk in both houses of Congress and President Bush, not known as a friend of the American auto industry has indicated he is more than anxious to sign it. While it seems to fly in the face of conservative values to smack industry over the head with a baseball bat, the President is invested heavily in this new wave of laws in hopes of appeasing his political foes.

 

In addition to this, the Supreme Court ruled earlier this year that the EPA has the right to regulate carbon emissions, a first. While it has not been decided if and when the EPA will begin putting a clamp on carbon, it is inevitable that they will. The only way to reduce carbon emissions is to reduce the amount of fuel being burned. It's simple math, there are no magic tricks for this one. Inevitably, reduction in carbon emissions means less horsepower, pure and simple.

 

Add these political and legislative pressures to the fact that the days of cheap gas are over and you have a sea change. With major developing countries like China and India now competing with the US for a finite supply of oil, the prices and supply are going to be hit like never before. This consistent $3.00 a gallon gasoline and higher price of fare is not only affecting what car buyers, enthusiasts or not, are planning on buying but what Detroit is planning on building in the future.

 

In the past few years we have been living in a muscle-car heyday. We have more power, responsible and reliable power than ever in the history of the automobile. It’s nothing to go out and find a 500+ hp Shelby Mustang, a 425hp Hemi Dodge or a 600hp Viper. They are a factory made, warranted and reliable choice right off the showroom. We have been more fortunate than we know.

 

In the coming years Detroit is going to be facing a new paradigm of making their cars 40% more efficient, mandated by law. They will be forced to spend more of their R&D in the areas of alternative fueled cars, small cars, hybrids, and even electrics. The money and time for muscle cars wont be there. Yes, this sounds like the same tripe we all heard in the 1970’s and again the 1980’s. But this time we have global pressures on oil supply that aren’t going away. We have a solid if not diabolic sell job on the psyche of the world citizen that we are all killing off the earth with our selfish mechanized actions. While this may be folly at it’s core, perception is reality and for the most part the sheep of the world are eating it up.

 

So, where does that leave us? Well to start with we suggest that if you want a factory built 500hp Shelby GT-500 or a big-block Hemi Chrysler, or even a 6.2 liter Camaro SS next year we suggest you buy it while you can. These cars are going to quietly disappear one day, just when we least expect it. Chrysler is already signaling that they are dropping some if not all of their SRT-8 line of vehicles for 2008 model year. No more 425hp 6.1 liter Hemi Chargers. The reason, slow sales and of course their need to keep their CAFÉ up.

 

Ford has been chastised by the press, ourselves included for not ponying up the power lately with bigger more powerful engines on some of the special edition Mustangs. Where are the big V8 rear wheel drive sedans? Instead, they are farming out the souping up of regular Mustang GT’s to aftermarket tuners like Carroll Shelby himself. The new supercharged Harley Davidson F-150 pickup will have its supercharger installed at the dealer by way of Saleen. This may indeed be the wave of the future for the hardcore high performance cars.

 

While companies like Ford, GM and Chrysler have the CAFÉ standards to meet, once the car leaves the factory door the requirements are met. The car can then go out to any tuner and be massaged with all the superchargers, turbos and whatever else it takes to put the power to the people. Provided that tuner can meet smog regulations which they are doing fine at by the way, then the car can be sold though the dealer just like Saleen, Roush, Shelby and Steeda cars are being done today.

 

The point is that the coming regulations aren’t likely to kill the high performance muscle car. They are likely however to kill the factory high performance muscle car. Sad as that might seem on the surface, the changes ahead might mean big time business for our stable of aforementioned tuners who have frankly been hit with a shovel in the past few years since the factory has gotten into the game.

 

We can only hope that someone is able to fill the void when Detroit no longer has the moral and fiscal fortitude to crank out mega-liter 500+ horsepower machines from their plants. In the meantime, go get them while you can and take good care of them because history is about to repeat itself.

[APPLESREDGT500]

I think we will have a few years til the brakes are put on, at least in the conventional sense, someone that has new ideas for HP without giving up fuel econemy will always be out there. Or get big HP out of one of those electric cars that have 1 electric motor for each wheel (pretty big #'s for ele. too ) and you can change the body, extend it longer or shorter on the same chassis have a car or truck buying just the top body cover to change out, I just saw one in I can't remember where?

[SpeedRacer]

Engines are smaller (less cubic inch), more efficent (better gas mileage), more powerful and more reliable than the "muscle cars" of the 60's & 70's. So, IMHO, this trend will continue... No immediate threat to the muscle car.

[Alloy Dave]

I do think we'll see a hiccup...that could be caused by congress or gas prices...but over the long-term, the musclecar will come back. It may be as a hybrid or hydrogen car....and the term "muscle" may mean something different than it does today...but I think there will always be high-performance vehicles. It is too ingrained in our culture to take it away.

 

Just think about all the car shows in the US in a given year. Think about NASCAR, CART, IRL, NHRA. IMO, if you shut down musclecar production completely, those sports go the way of the dinosaur too.

 

The change will occur, but it will be slow. The big 3 are likely already "locked in" on engine designs that will be used through about 2012 or so. In addition, the way Congress moves...it will take them 2 years to get anything passed AFTER THEY START. Therefore, any significant changes will likely not occur until about 2014 or farther.

 

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[Super Snake]

It will be soon

[2008 Shelby]

IMO "muscle car" means big block V-8's. In this context I do see a progressive trend to further restrain and/or eliminate them in the future (given the ever increasing "green" political climate worldwide).

[SpeedRacer]

IMO "muscle car" means big block V-8's. In this context I do see a progressive trend to further restrain and/or eliminate them in the future (given the ever increasing "green" political climate worldwide).

 

 

BTW the 5.4 is a Small Block, not a Big Block V8.

[phillycrashmann]

link to article or read it below

 

http://www.themustangnews.com/fomoco_07/st-0607muscle.htm

06-03-07: Whether you buy into the Great Global Warming Swindle or not, the politicians America elected to Washington on the last go around certainly do. This combined with higher prices for gas that honestly aren’t going down again have brought a great deal of both legislative and market pressure on the American automakers to change. In the past couple of years and now into the future, they are going to be focusing on cars that pollute less and use less fuel as a matter of survival rather than will.

 

The Democrat controlled Congress, working hard to pay off their far left base is currently working on a sweeping new package of energy legislation that will dramatically increase the required Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFÉ) standards to numbers well beyond what we have today. The legislation in it’s current form will require that automakers increase the mile per gallon ratings of cars and trucks by a whopping 40% by 2020. This is the equivalent to a 9.0 earthquake hitting the city of Detroit.

 

What is loomingly frightful is that this legislation is headed for a slam dunk in both houses of Congress and President Bush, not known as a friend of the American auto industry has indicated he is more than anxious to sign it. While it seems to fly in the face of conservative values to smack industry over the head with a baseball bat, the President is invested heavily in this new wave of laws in hopes of appeasing his political foes.

 

In addition to this, the Supreme Court ruled earlier this year that the EPA has the right to regulate carbon emissions, a first. While it has not been decided if and when the EPA will begin putting a clamp on carbon, it is inevitable that they will. The only way to reduce carbon emissions is to reduce the amount of fuel being burned. It's simple math, there are no magic tricks for this one. Inevitably, reduction in carbon emissions means less horsepower, pure and simple.

 

Add these political and legislative pressures to the fact that the days of cheap gas are over and you have a sea change. With major developing countries like China and India now competing with the US for a finite supply of oil, the prices and supply are going to be hit like never before. This consistent $3.00 a gallon gasoline and higher price of fare is not only affecting what car buyers, enthusiasts or not, are planning on buying but what Detroit is planning on building in the future.

 

In the past few years we have been living in a muscle-car heyday. We have more power, responsible and reliable power than ever in the history of the automobile. It’s nothing to go out and find a 500+ hp Shelby Mustang, a 425hp Hemi Dodge or a 600hp Viper. They are a factory made, warranted and reliable choice right off the showroom. We have been more fortunate than we know.

 

In the coming years Detroit is going to be facing a new paradigm of making their cars 40% more efficient, mandated by law. They will be forced to spend more of their R&D in the areas of alternative fueled cars, small cars, hybrids, and even electrics. The money and time for muscle cars wont be there. Yes, this sounds like the same tripe we all heard in the 1970’s and again the 1980’s. But this time we have global pressures on oil supply that aren’t going away. We have a solid if not diabolic sell job on the psyche of the world citizen that we are all killing off the earth with our selfish mechanized actions. While this may be folly at it’s core, perception is reality and for the most part the sheep of the world are eating it up.

 

So, where does that leave us? Well to start with we suggest that if you want a factory built 500hp Shelby GT-500 or a big-block Hemi Chrysler, or even a 6.2 liter Camaro SS next year we suggest you buy it while you can. These cars are going to quietly disappear one day, just when we least expect it. Chrysler is already signaling that they are dropping some if not all of their SRT-8 line of vehicles for 2008 model year. No more 425hp 6.1 liter Hemi Chargers. The reason, slow sales and of course their need to keep their CAFÉ up.

 

Ford has been chastised by the press, ourselves included for not ponying up the power lately with bigger more powerful engines on some of the special edition Mustangs. Where are the big V8 rear wheel drive sedans? Instead, they are farming out the souping up of regular Mustang GT’s to aftermarket tuners like Carroll Shelby himself. The new supercharged Harley Davidson F-150 pickup will have its supercharger installed at the dealer by way of Saleen. This may indeed be the wave of the future for the hardcore high performance cars.

 

While companies like Ford, GM and Chrysler have the CAFÉ standards to meet, once the car leaves the factory door the requirements are met. The car can then go out to any tuner and be massaged with all the superchargers, turbos and whatever else it takes to put the power to the people. Provided that tuner can meet smog regulations which they are doing fine at by the way, then the car can be sold though the dealer just like Saleen, Roush, Shelby and Steeda cars are being done today.

 

The point is that the coming regulations aren’t likely to kill the high performance muscle car. They are likely however to kill the factory high performance muscle car. Sad as that might seem on the surface, the changes ahead might mean big time business for our stable of aforementioned tuners who have frankly been hit with a shovel in the past few years since the factory has gotten into the game.

 

We can only hope that someone is able to fill the void when Detroit no longer has the moral and fiscal fortitude to crank out mega-liter 500+ horsepower machines from their plants. In the meantime, go get them while you can and take good care of them because history is about to repeat itself.

 

Very well written Cold, food for thought.

[mad103]

I did not read all the article but I voted no. There is a large chance that it will happen but I think we will first see a "change" in muscle before it disappears. I was watching a show on future cars and, of course, they had the talk of ELECTRIC cars but I think that we might be able to hit diesel performance before that. I do not know if many of you would accept DIESELS as muscle cars but those things are superquick. The Banks owner/CEO has some performance trucks with diesels and they have A LOT of horsepower and very fuel efficient and good to the environment. So I think the new muscle will survive through Diesels. Once everything goes electric, I think that can no longer be called MUSCLE. M2C

 

Alex

[Joe]

I believe that we are entering what will eventually be regarded as the "Golden Age" of American Muscle Cars with the intro of the GT500 to be followed by similar products from Dodge and GM which WILL eventually die out but whcich will never be surpassed in the future of the ICE automobile.

[1BADGT500]

Yea I hate to see the Big V8's go, but on a more positive note....

 

 

 

CHECK THIS OUT!

 

THIS BAD ASS ELECTRIC CAR KICKS FERRARI 360 MODINA AND PORCHE CARREIRA'S ASSES AND HAS A 150 MILE RANGE!

 

I THINK (THE CARS OF THE FUTURE) WILL ALWAYS HAVE SOME HIGH PERFORMANCE MODELS AVAILABLE IF YOU CAN AFFORD THEM.

 

 

 

Unbelievable!

[2008 Shelby]

BTW the 5.4 is a Small Block, not a Big Block V8.

 

True. The way things are going I guess you could say V-8's in general are slowly fading away.

[chuckstang]

Lets see, Ford offers a 500hp Mustang, GM has yet to even introduce there huge players which will offer more than 500hp, Chevy has the z07 with more than 600hp, Dodge has the 08 Viper with 600hp.

I think it will be just like the 60s, one day bam, they just disapear.

History repeats itself

[jcthorne]

I did not read all the article but I voted no. There is a large chance that it will happen but I think we will first see a "change" in muscle before it disappears. I was watching a show on future cars and, of course, they had the talk of ELECTRIC cars but I think that we might be able to hit diesel performance before that. I do not know if many of you would accept DIESELS as muscle cars but those things are superquick. The Banks owner/CEO has some performance trucks with diesels and they have A LOT of horsepower and very fuel efficient and good to the environment. So I think the new muscle will survive through Diesels. Once everything goes electric, I think that can no longer be called MUSCLE. M2C

 

Alex

 

I may be a minority opinion on the diesel thing but I think the new 2008 diesel emmissions requirements have hit a double whammy on the diesel market that it just might not recover from. Time will tell but I will explain what I mean.

 

The new emissions requirements have SIGNIFICANTLY increased the complexity of a modern diesel and therefore its cost to produce. As an example, the PowerStroke in my 2002 pickup was a $3500 upcharge over the V10 gas equivelent truck. A pretty good chunk of change but quite recoverable in lower fuel and maintiance expenses. That upcharge on a 2008 Ford pickup is approaching $8000. Might not have killed it on its own but the added complexity is haveing 2 other negative impacts. The new 2008s are getting significantly lower fuel economy and are having much greater frequency of repair.

 

So now a diesel truck costs 8000 more than the gas, only gets approx 20% better fuel economy and has a higher operation expense. hard to justify. yes they still have towing benifits. Its not a slam dunk case, but not as easy a decision as it once was.

 

The Germans are not having much better time with it. The VW Touraeg with its new bluetec V10 diesel is a cool 10k more than the gas version and gets.......2 more miles to the gallon. Difficult to justify.

 

The diesel performace market is there, I have dabbled in it but with all the new requirements and difficulties, not sure its future is so bright.

[ColdwaterHotrod]

The new 2008s are getting significantly lower fuel economy and are having much greater frequency of repair.

 

So now a diesel truck costs 8000 more than the gas, only gets approx 20% better fuel economy and has a higher operation expense.

 

 

which is it? better or worse fuel economy?

[SpeedRacer]

True. The way things are going I guess you could say V-8's in general are slowly fading away.

 

 

I agree...

[Alloy Dave]

which is it? better or worse fuel economy?

I think what he meant was that they are getting WORSE fuel economy in 2008 than the same product did in 2007 due to the changes.

 

However, they still get BETTER mileage than gasoline vehicles.

 

Dave

[69b302]

It's over. Our wonderful governement will regulate us, for our own good, into whatever is politically correct at the time. I expected some type of surchage first(put money into their pockets, but for your own good). It's not really taking away your freedom, if you can pay or complete a bunch of paperwork to get what our founding father tried to guarantee. Just look at all the "sin" taxes and what has been done to smokers over the last decade(I don't smoke, but feel they are getting screwed). Enjoy while you can.

[SteelSteeds]

I do think we'll see a hiccup...that could be caused by congress or gas prices...but over the long-term, the musclecar will come back. It may be as a hybrid or hydrogen car....and the term "muscle" may mean something different than it does today...but I think there will always be high-performance vehicles. It is too ingrained in our culture to take it away.

 

Just think about all the car shows in the US in a given year. Think about NASCAR, CART, IRL, NHRA. IMO, if you shut down musclecar production completely, those sports go the way of the dinosaur too.

 

The change will occur, but it will be slow. The big 3 are likely already "locked in" on engine designs that will be used through about 2012 or so. In addition, the way Congress moves...it will take them 2 years to get anything passed AFTER THEY START. Therefore, any significant changes will likely not occur until about 2014 or farther.

 

I hate to disagree with you Dave, but I must. Back in '72, the Big 3 were just as locked in to their engine designs. That's why they got choked down in horsepower with the new smog gear: it was a frantic, stop-gap effort to comply with the new requirements using yester-tech, rather than a costly new design, which wouldn't even start appearing for another 5-6 years. The manufacturers got out of racing, and the popularity of those sports declined some. Change is already in the wind. I live in Oregon, and as of the 2009 model year, OR (and WA) are adopting California emissions standards. That's all well and good, except for the fact that CA is taking their standard up another notch effective (you guessed it) with the 2009 model year. I don't yet know how that's going to affect the available models, but I'm not optimistic.

 

I do totally agree with you regarding performance in general. It will never go away, there are too many people like us! It will evolve with the times, and may be electric (the Tesla is an excellent example) or hydrogen or something else entirely. Anti-grav generators anyone? But I think the approaching hiccup is going to be severe, and soon. We have a couple of years left, but I predict that by the 2012 model year, high performance is going to be more similar to what it meant in 1979 than what it means in 2007.

[Alloy Dave]

I hate to disagree with you Dave, but I must. Back in '72, the Big 3 were just as locked in to their engine designs. That's why they got choked down in horsepower with the new smog gear: it was a frantic, stop-gap effort to comply with the new requirements using yester-tech, rather than a costly new design, which wouldn't even start appearing for another 5-6 years. The manufacturers got out of racing, and the popularity of those sports declined some. Change is already in the wind. I live in Oregon, and as of the 2009 model year, OR (and WA) are adopting California emissions standards. That's all well and good, except for the fact that CA is taking their standard up another notch effective (you guessed it) with the 2009 model year. I don't yet know how that's going to affect the available models, but I'm not optimistic.

 

I do totally agree with you regarding performance in general. It will never go away, there are too many people like us! It will evolve with the times, and may be electric (the Tesla is an excellent example) or hydrogen or something else entirely. Anti-grav generators anyone? But I think the approaching hiccup is going to be severe, and soon. We have a couple of years left, but I predict that by the 2012 model year, high performance is going to be more similar to what it meant in 1979 than what it means in 2007.

 

Have you read the most recent legislation in front of Congress on fuel economy? It suggests a 4% per year increase starting in 2011 and running through 2020. CAFE would move from the current 27.5 to 35. I may have been a bit optimistic....but even Congress thinks it will take at least 3 more years. Let's hope they are as slow on this as they have been on social security and health care reforms.

 

My last comment above was tongue-in-cheek. I'm in favor of higher mileage for cars...but what upsets me is the "hurry up and wait" attitude of Congress. The CAFE of 27.5 has not changed in 17 years!!!! What we should have done 17 years ago is given them simple non-aggressive targets to reach...but KEEP RAISING THEM ever so slightly. This would make it easier to reach, keep the focus on...and we'd be at 40 MPG today.

 

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[SteelSteeds]

True, but you aren't taking into account the changes in emissions requirements. Those will potentially kick in sooner, and cause more problems. If the EPA decides to start limiting carbon dioxide emissions, they could do so as early as MY 2009. Other emissions than CO2 could also be made stricter with the stroke of a pen, and given the current climate in government, I think this is more likely than not.

 

I don't think any one factor will cause muscle cars to fade. As before, it will be a culmination of several things. Emissions, fuel economy, fuel prices, and public image. By that last one, I'm referring to the feeling in the early 70's that muscle cars were dangerous; too many people died in fiery crashes or high speed accidents. If we start getting a slew of deaths from accidents, especially innocent bystanders like the woman who was killed by the GT500 in CA, public opinion will turn on us again.

 

Drive safe, everyone.