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Peak Oil


csm198

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My friend told me

" "Do you know the meaning of "peak oil" ? Don't read about "peak oil" tonight though, you will lose sleep over it. I did." "

 

Well he was right, I did not know the meaning, and as a avid car nut my mind is already spinning.

 

Look it up on wikipedia

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That is based on the idea of drilling for conventional type of oil. What about the massive coal shelves in Pennsylvania and Utah. Those 2 area alone could produce massive amounts of gasoline and petroleum products. Then there is the Anwar, which at the moment were not allowed to touch. There is a large amount of product left in the Northern Hemisphere if we were allowed to utilize it. Just my .02 cents.

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Look it up on wikipedia

 

There is significant debate on this topic and the Wikipedia article is very biased one way. Don't believe everything you read on the interweb tubes.

 

Variations of the peak oil theory have been around for decades and get resurrected and hyped in one form or another every 5-10 years. But they have consistently proved false to date. I suppose the supporters claim they where just off with the timing of their predictions. The experts in the 70's sort of missed the incredibly cheap oil that lead to the SUV boom and HP wars of the 90's and early 00's They completely failed to predict the advances in gas engine technology that have happened. Until the most recent 2008 oil price spike most of increase in engine efficiency was applied to get higher HP instead of higher MPG. Look what Ford did with ecoboost in just a couple years. I think there is huge potential for 2nd/3rd generation hybird technology like GMs Volt or the what Porsche is doing with Porsche 918 Spyder.

 

A couple of recent opinions on the other side:

 

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/30/business/30views.html?ref=oilpetroleumandgasoline

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/28/science/28tierney.html?ref=johntierney

 

But regardless, even the end of oil won't mean the end of civilization or even just personal transportation. Most of the more extreme senarios have the oil supply going to zero practically overnight. That clearly won't happen. Oil comes from too many different places now. If supplies ramp down, prices will rise. Capitalism is self correcting, as a resource starts to cost more, people find alternatives and look harder. There are numerous alternatives to oil, their collective problem is they aren't economically viable given oils currently relatively cheap price. As oil prices rise more effort will be put into developing these alternatives. Oil sands, algae created oil, better extraction technology, and better battery technology come to mind. Of course, It wouldn't suprise me at all if there are short term oil price spikes due to politcal events, market manipulation, etc. from time to time.

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The largest oil field in the world was found a few years ago in the Dakotas and stretches into Colorado, Wyoming, Montana and Canada. It is many times larger than anything in the mideast. They are currently working on constructing one of the largest oil refineries in Elk Point, SD. I guess they never mentioned that in the peak oil article. The point is that there is plenty of oil out there, but there are far many - and better - alternatives. Frankly, the simple solution is water, burning water, or converting water to hydrogen, for fuel. Actually, this is old technology, but it is an effective alternative to fossil fuels.

 

If you look, there is a ton of info all over the internet regarding water as fuel. Hopefully you'll sleep better now. :salute:

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If you really want to crap your pants think about the fact that petroleum is used in FAR more products than gasoline.

 

The entire medical industry would have to change if we ran out of oil as all plastics are made from oil. Synithetic fibers--- oil, Anasthetics -- oil, bandages, toothpaste, and THOUSANDS of other products are made from --- OIL.

 

If we run out of oil our world WILL take a drastic, and perhaps drastic isn't a strong enough word, change.

 

People talk about alternative fuel technologies taking oil's place... the problem is to create alternative fuel you need... ( you guessed it) OIL.

 

Everything we do every single day is impacted by oil.

 

Even if every car in the world were converted to electric TODAY, you STILL need oil for... Tires, plastic on the interior, probably 100 or more parts including reservoirs, hoses, etc. etc. etc.... ------ OIL.

 

To be honest I sincerely hope I'm long in the ground before we run out of oil... but no matter the debate about how much is left and blah blah blah the fact is that oil is a FINITE resource. It WILL run out at some point.

 

Now will it run out in 10 years or 100 years or 10000 years no one really knows. But don't get all cozy thinking about hybrid vehicles and nuclear power to save the day when we run out of oil because believe me folks if it happens in our lifetime there will be a cataclysmic altering of our day to day lives.

 

Ok now I'm going to go cry in the corner :)

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