Very Interesting Ebay Activity

[5.4 Shelby]

As always, this argument always ends in we'll see. And we will. I started this thread to keep an eye on the ebay market and discuss it. I am only stating facts from the completed auctions and adding my opinion of what they mean.

 

The offers all end at about 10k right now. That shows what people are willing to pay. If they really wanted to pay more, they would. Most people that are with it enough to know about these cars and the "high demand" associated with them do have computers.

 

If the market were like the great potato famine, the cars would be selling rather than not meeting reserve. All those millions of people waiting to pay whatever it takes to get a car would be paying for these few that are available on ebay. But, they aren't. This should reinforce the theory that the cars are not sold out and that the market is not oversaturated with buyers. People reporting that their area is sold out are being told that by their dealers. Go into one of the dealers with a 30k check and see if they can't "remember" another allotment that they have waiting.

 

Rob, you should contact your contacts and get clarification of what they mean by production ending in March. I plan to call SVT next week and see what they say. If Ralph is saying it, I would tend to believe it, but, I think we need him to clarify. If the zone managers are saying it, I would tend to think they are feeding the hype as they are realistically factory to dealer representatives that need to move cars.

 

I do not think that buying this car to flip it is a very wise investment. Once it rolls of the lot, it is a used car. I quess if you trailered it home, and left all the plastic and window stickers on it, you could still call it new.

 

I wonder about the investor end of it. Risky.

 

Short term investors will get burned. As you said, it is a used car and will continue to lose value for a long time. It may return in the long run, but, not likely as well as a good mutual fund. The only ones likely to profit from it are the ones that had powerlease deals or MSRP deals and turn around and sell it for the current markup.

[Lutzcat]

I do not think that buying this car to flip it is a very wise investment. Once it rolls of the lot, it is a used car. I quess if you trailered it home, and left all the plastic and window stickers on it, you could still call it new.

 

I wonder about the investor end of it. Risky.

 

 

 

I agree, but that's whats happening right now, even though I've only seen one on the road, I know of three that are stored in garages right now, bought by the higher end and they don't drive them. I'm having my 15 min. of fame and loving it.

[Grabber]

Rob, you should contact your contacts and get clarification of what they mean by production ending in March. I plan to call SVT next week and see what they say. If Ralph is saying it, I would tend to believe it, but, I think we need him to clarify. If the zone managers are saying it, I would tend to think they are feeding the hype as they are realistically factory to dealer representatives that need to move cars.

 

5.4 Shelby,

rpretzel talked to Ralph a couple of days ago, and he told Rick that the Shelby Production for 2007 was going to wrap up torwards the end of Feb.

 

My Zone Rep. is not trying to feed me any hype. We communicate direct. Nothing is watered down. Nothing but straight shooting going on here. It jives with what Ralph told Rick.

[5.4 Shelby]

5.4 Shelby,

rpretzel talked to Ralph a couple of days ago, and he told Rick that the Shelby Production for 2007 was going to wrap up torwards the end of Feb.

 

My Zone Rep. is not trying to feed me any hype. We communicate direct. Nothing is watered down. Nothing but straight shooting going on here. It jives with what Ralph told Rick.

 

I just emailed my contact at AAI. I have not spoken to him since last Summer. I don't know when or If I'll hear from him.

 

It just does not make sense as to why they would stop it. Something does not add up.

[Grabber]

I just emailed my contact at AAI. I have not spoken to him since last Summer. I don't know when or If I'll hear from him.

 

It just does not make sense as to why they would stop it. Something does not add up.

 

 

5.4: Here is the excact e-mail I got from my reg. Zone Rep. on 11/22/06. I just pulled it back up, in case you did not see it earlier.

 

 

Hi Rob -

 

As far as I know, nothing has changed......all 2007 Shelby orders will be built before the end of the 2007 'model' year, not 'calendar' year. We have production planned thru March/April 2007 for '07 model year Shelbys. If I could pull your order ahead to this calendar year - trust me, I would.

 

I will keep you posted on anything else I hear......

 

Have a wonderful Thanksgiving!

[5.4 Shelby]

5.4: Here is the excact e-mail I got from my reg. Zone Rep. on 11/22/06. I just pulled it back up, in case you did not see it earlier.

Hi Rob -

 

As far as I know, nothing has changed......all 2007 Shelby orders will be built before the end of the 2007 'model' year, not 'calendar' year. We have production planned thru March/April 2007 for '07 model year Shelbys. If I could pull your order ahead to this calendar year - trust me, I would.

 

I will keep you posted on anything else I hear......

 

Have a wonderful Thanksgiving!

 

Sorry, but, I don't read that as production is ending in April. I read that as they have already figured out how many cars are being built between now and then and where yours falls in that line. I think your PSDS has gotten the best of you. He is simply saying he cannot move your car up because of where it is in the build cycle. That build cycle is already planned through April.

 

Also, I just checked Autotrader. There are 206 cars listed on their under 2007 Mustangs with keyword Shelby. I skimmed and it looks like almost all of them are actually GT500s.

[shel-b001]

yeh, we were both posting at the same time. I feel bad for the guys that are waiting for the MSRP deals. I think you are right about the collectors scooping up the cars too. I think that allot of baby boomers have also purchased these cars.

 

 

I think you are right -on with this one.

[Grabber]

We have production planned thru March/April 2007 for '07 model year Shelbys.

 

5.4,

 

You could be right, and I read this wrong. But when Rick told me what Ralph said, the 2 jived and, well...you said it, I am a sick man.

 

PSDS

[rpretzel]

5.4,

 

You could be right, and I read this wrong. But when Rick told me what Ralf said, the 2 jived and, well...you said it, I am a sick man.

 

PSDS

 

 

Rob, put down the detonator and step away from the keyboard. Where's Ruf with the Excursion. Rob needs a support group.

 

I'm right there with you, Rob. I've spent most of the day shopping for mods for my non-existant Shelby...CAI, tune, exhaust, rims, tires, etc. This process is driving me nuts!

[90GT]

Rob, put down the detonator and step away from the keyboard. Where's Ruf with the Excursion. Rob needs a support group.

 

I'm right there with you, Rob. I've spent most of the day shopping for mods for my non-existant Shelby...CAI, tune, exhaust, rims, tires, etc. This process is driving me nuts!

 

 

Yeah but shopping for parts helps dull the pain!!! :hyper: I bought wheels and a coil over kit for my car and I just ordered it on the 15th!!!

[Grabber]

Rob, put down the detonator and step away from the keyboard. Where's Ruf with the Excursion. Rob needs a support group.

 

I'm right there with you, Rob. I've spent most of the day shopping for mods for my non-existant Shelby...CAI, tune, exhaust, rims, tires, etc. This process is driving me nuts!

 

Kitty,

 

Next time you talk to Ralph, ask him about the final production plans. See what you started !

 

Just kidding

[5.4 Shelby]

I have been shopping, too. I don't even have a deal in place. I have only bought things like t-shirts, garage goodies, car care products etc. I have come close a few time to buying car parts, but, realize that it is foolish until I know for sure that I will be getting a car.

[Grabber]

I have been shopping, too. I don't even have a deal in place. I have only bought things like t-shirts, garage goodies, car care products etc. I have come close a few time to buying car parts, but, realize that it is foolish until I know for sure that I will be getting a car.

 

Are you firm on your MSRP position ? would you cave and go 5K ADM if you could find it ? What is your back up plan vehicle if prices do not go to MSRP ?

 

Just Curious.

[rpretzel]

I have been shopping, too. I don't even have a deal in place. I have only bought things like t-shirts, garage goodies, car care products etc. I have come close a few time to buying car parts, but, realize that it is foolish until I know for sure that I will be getting a car.

 

 

So far, I've only purchased floormats. They are under my desk, so it feels like I'm dircing my Shelby when I'm on the computer.

 

I just noticed that Bassani finally has their axle back available for the GT500. I'll be placing my order on Monday. :happy feet:

[5.4 Shelby]

Are you firm on your MSRP position ? would you cave and go 5K ADM if you could find it ? What is your back up plan vehicle if prices do not go to MSRP ?

 

Just Curious.

 

I have made offers for $1500 over. I can justify that in my mind because the small dealers that I have offered that to had to pay that to be in the program. As they are only getting one car, that cuts directly into their profit. So, I have offered to pay that fee for them in addition to MSRP.

 

I doubt I would go any higher than that unless it becomes quite clear that I would not get a car unless I did. I have the cash to pay ADM. It is just a principle thing as well as (in my opinion) an educated thing. I have followed cars for a long time and have seen them all go through the diminishing ADM to MSRP and sometimes rebates thing. The first 6 to 9 months are the harriest where people are freaking out (like us). After that it settles down and the prices fall to normal. I think the Shelby is a little more resistant to the fall, but, will still fall.

 

If the Shelby never works out, I have decided to go with the Roush 427R. It is a really cool Mustang with lots of go and sharp handling.

 

I looked at the Corvette, used 911 Turbos, M3, 240Z, used Vipers (have not driven one yet)and GTO. They are all very nice cars, but, do not strike my passion chords like Mustangs do. There is just something special about them.

 

So far, I've only purchased floormats. They are under my desk, so it feels like I'm dircing my Shelby when I'm on the computer.

 

I just noticed that Bassani finally has their axle back available for the GT500. I'll be placing my order on Monday. :happy feet:

 

I loved the way Bassani sounded on the Terms. That will be my first choice on the Shelby and likely the first mod. I may have to go with their X-pipe also. The design of the Bassani X is really the meat of the Bassani exhaust sound. At least it was on the Terms. I'll have to hear it on the 5.4.

[Captainbob]

Yeah but shopping for parts helps dull the pain!!! :hyper: I bought wheels and a coil over kit for my car and I just ordered it on the 15th!!!

 

What kind of wheels and can you share some knowledge coil over kit??

[Alloy Dave]

Rob, I value your opinion, but, the ebay market IS representative of the whole market. It shows what people are willing to pay. Do you have a better source to gauge market value or is it just guessing on your part based on when you think production will end? I agree with whoever made the statement in your thread about the 2007 initial allotment being finished by FEb or Mar. Then, everything made from then until June will be the "share of nation" cars.

 

Ford has no reason to stop or slow production of the GT500. The Shelby GTs are regular Mustang GTs that are shipped to Shelby Autos. There are no special production needs. Typical Ford model year production ends in May and the next year starts in June. Stopping short of that makes no business sense.

 

By definition Ebay is NOT representative of the whole market. Any dealer that is selling their cars for MSRP would not list them on Ebay, so Ebay is artificially high by excluding MSRP deals. You think no one is getting MSRP? Think again. I did...and I'm sure I'm not the only one.

 

Dave

[rpretzel]

By definition Ebay is NOT representative of the whole market. Any dealer that is selling their cars for MSRP would not list them on Ebay, so Ebay is artificially high by excluding MSRP deals. You think no one is getting MSRP? Think again. I did...and I'm sure I'm not the only one.

 

Dave

 

 

 

+1,000 And a quick look at how many of the eBay listings don't hit the reserve shows that many people are not willing to pay what's on eBay.

[Grabber]

By definition Ebay is NOT representative of the whole market. Any dealer that is selling their cars for MSRP would not list them on Ebay, so Ebay is artificially high by excluding MSRP deals. You think no one is getting MSRP? Think again. I did...and I'm sure I'm not the only one.

 

Dave

 

[5.4 Shelby]

By definition Ebay is NOT representative of the whole market. Any dealer that is selling their cars for MSRP would not list them on Ebay, so Ebay is artificially high by excluding MSRP deals. You think no one is getting MSRP? Think again. I did...and I'm sure I'm not the only one.

 

Dave

 

When did you secure your MSRP deal? Was it within the last few weeks? Ebay is the only market that we have access to the numbers. It DOES represent the ADM market. It shows what people are willing to pay. Most of those are about 10 over which is the whole point of this thread and my update post.

 

+1,000 And a quick look at how many of the eBay listings don't hit the reserve shows that many people are not willing to pay what's on eBay.

 

-1000. See above post. My whole point is that it is representing how much people are willing to pay. You are backing that up by saying it shows that people are not willing to pay it.

[mastersmech1]

When did you secure your MSRP deal? Was it within the last few weeks? Ebay is the only market that we have access to the numbers. It DOES represent the ADM market. It shows what people are willing to pay. Most of those are about 10 over which is the whole point of this thread and my update post.

-1000. See above post. My whole point is that it is representing how much people are willing to pay. You are backing that up by saying it shows that people are not willing to pay it.

 

Spoke to my dealer today that I bought my GT500 and Shelby GT from. He has nothing more to gain from me in this market and no reason to lie. He said the 500 on there showroom floor went on ebay twice and the winning bidders came up with a line of sh!t about flying in soon to check out the car or some other BS. They feel like its a good gauge but ebay is full of BS and people who don't show. They want to price the car according to ebay pricing but its not reality anymore. He said the market is 20-25 ADM. That market is long gone. We're at the 8-13K ADM now.

[Alloy Dave]

When did you secure your MSRP deal? Was it within the last few weeks? Ebay is the only market that we have access to the numbers. It DOES represent the ADM market. It shows what people are willing to pay. Most of those are about 10 over which is the whole point of this thread and my update post.

-1000. See above post. My whole point is that it is representing how much people are willing to pay. You are backing that up by saying it shows that people are not willing to pay it.

My deal was secured in March. Originally you said Ebay represented the WHOLE market, now you're saying it represents the ADM market. It shows what SOME people are willing to pay. There are many dealers that are using local auctions to sell cars. I just spoke to the local dealer in my town. They are auctioning their remaining two cars among a small group of people that were on their "list". This may or may not be near the $10k on Ebay. They told me they don't want to go the Ebay route for several reasons. 1) They want to do business locally...they have an interest in the community 2) They have to pay fees to advertise on Ebay...selling locally allows them to charge less and make the same profit (yes, I realize they MIGHT be able to get MORE on Ebay) 3) They don't want their salespeople setting up Ebay accounts, typing Ebay ads, and monitoring the site for questions....they have never sold on Ebay before and don't want to invest the brainpower in getting it all set up and training someone to do it.

 

I'm sure there are many dealers (mostly the smaller ones) that are doing this...avoiding Ebay. Think about it...there are over 3,000 Ford dealers in the U.S. Not sure how many are selling the GT500, let's say two thirds....2,000. Have we seen 2,000 dealers advertise on Ebay?

 

I do agree that Ebay is the BEST indicator we have of pricing, but that's because it's the most objective data we have. Just because it's the best doesn't mean it's correct. My best indicator of the color of your hair is brown...only because that's the most common hair color. Does that mean it's correct? No. The other indicator we have is what the members on this forum are paying. Some tell, some don't...so that's not so reliable either.

 

Dave

[5.4 Shelby]

Don't get me wrong Dave, I hate bay. I'm just saying (as you did) that it is the best objective data we have. Your March deal does not represent the current market conditions. It represents that some dealers made deals before they realized how crazy this market was going to get. Look at Coldwater's (and many others). His dealer was trying to get out of his deal. I bet there are few to none when it comes to MSRP deals being currently made.

 

We're at the 8-13K ADM now.

Where do you get that number from? How do you know that is where we are?

 

I'd like to see a poll on this board, but, I'm afraid it would not be totally accurate either.

[Alloy Dave]

Don't get me wrong Dave, I hate bay. I'm just saying (as you did) that it is the best objective data we have. Your March deal does not represent the current market conditions. It represents that some dealers made deals before they realized how crazy this market was going to get. Look at Coldwater's (and many others). His dealer was trying to get out of his deal. I bet there are few to none when it comes to MSRP deals being currently made.

I agree. All I was trying to point out is that you mention my deal is not meaningful since it was made in March. Well, in March the Ebay ADMs were EVEN HIGHER....meaning they were even MORE biased to the wrong side.

 

I agree that few to no MSRP deals are being made now, but have no data to back that up. My reasoning is that back in March there was "imperfect information", leading to a higher standard deviation in pricing. Now that information is much more plentiful (Ebay, the forums, friends talking to friends, news stories, etc.) related to pricing, the pricing is becoming more standard (lower standard deviation).

 

The imperfect information comment above comes from the financial liturature (I work in finance), and relates to stock prices. This phenomenon with the GT500s is eerily similar to stock pricing in many ways.

 

Dave

[Grabber]

I bet there are few to none when it comes to MSRP deals being currently made.

I agree with you 100% on that.

Rob

 

I'd like to see a poll on this board, but, I'm afraid it would not be totally accurate either.

I sometimes wonder about this too. I thought about starting a thread on this but did not.

I may re think it again.

[Alloy Dave]

I agree with you 100% on that.

Rob

I sometimes wonder about this too. I thought about starting a thread on this but did not.

I may re think it again.

Somebody tried it once. Those who bought at low prices spoke up. Those who paid high ADMs kept quiet. That was no surprise to me, after all the grief heaped on those who paid ADMs.

 

Just let me say AGAIN...for the record...I have NO complaints with those who paid ADMs....it's your money, you do what you want.

 

Dave

[JETSOLVER]

 

The imperfect information comment above comes from the financial liturature (I work in finance), and relates to stock prices. This phenomenon with the GT500s is eerily similar to stock pricing in many ways.

 

 

 

Am I the only one who sees a particularly cruel irony in all this?

 

Nobody, but nobody, not even Ford who desperately needs this very data set, has a freakin clue what the market is, has or will be until they are all available at MSRP or below?(unlikely yes, however)

 

No dealer is going to tell Ford how much they managed to get out of a customer, let alone all of them doing it. At least in the market, there is a tracking mechanism. Here, it is a free for all with very little substantiated info. And it is in everyones best interest to not give it up. Except those who wish to purchase at the Manufacturers Suggested Retail Price.

 

Wow. Capitalism at its purest, or something else entirely?

[ratnacage]

eBay is a complex animal - more so than it appears.

 

I consider us to be somewhat an authority on eBay when it comes to selling cars there. Just because a vehicle doesn't meet reserve, doesn't mean it didn't sell above the reserve price. Sometimes you have to list a vehicle multiple times before it sells. Does that mean the market is "soft" or the asking price is too high? Not necessarily. It's all about timing. A listing only lasts, typically, a week or so, and many times it's just a matter of the listing being there when the "buyer" sees it. It's like having a showcase in a store. You leave it there and eventually someone that wants that item sees it, and they buy it. Sometimes you have to leave it there longer before a buyer comes along. Most of the time, the buyer doesn't surface until after the auction ends. The conversation usually starts something like this: buyer: "the auction on that truck that just ended, do you still have it...."

 

A case in point: we've sold more Ford GT's than I can count, yet if you were to look at the results of our eBay auctions, you'd say the market was nowhere near MSRP - the auctions typically end at $10k below sticker. Yet, we've sold nearly every one of our GT's at MSRP. You have a HUGE number of people that are interested in your vehicle, but the vast majority are wishful thinkers - I mean how else can you have a bid of $5000 for a brand new Mustang GT, or a GT500, or have bids of $50k for a GT?

 

Back to the GT500: a quick review of completed auctions shows that at least 20 GT500's have sold in the past month or two at an average selling price of $59k. That's $15k over MSRP. Knowing what I know about the relationship between selling prices on eBay and the average selling price off eBay, I find it very reasonable to conclude that the average actual selling price of GT500's is $15k-$20k over MSRP. The fact is that no matter how many people are willing to pay MSRP or a little over, the market, on average, will not come down to that level until it (the market) runs sufficiently low on people willing to pay $15-$20k over. I cannot stress this nuance enough - 90% of buyers can be at $5k over, but if the 10% that are willing to pay $15-$20k are of sufficient quantity to satisfy the current supply, then the price will stay at the higher level. Right now, the demand for these cars is higher than the supply. We get calls all the time from people willing to pay $60k if we had one. The problem is, that even as a dealer, we wouldn't be able to afford to sell them at that price because it costs too much to buy one from another dealer.

 

We've sold 7 GT500's, but only one actually sold on eBay. The rest were "reserve not met" yet every one sold for over $63k - in fact the lowest selling price was the one on eBay at $63k. On average, the auctions ended below $59k.

 

The bottom line is that the results of "unsuccessful" auctions can be, and are very misleading and give a very poor indication of where the actual market as a whole is.

[Grabber]

Rat,

 

Thank you for your input. Since you work at a dealership and are also in internet sales, I value you opinion highly. Too bad your dealership is sold out for 2007. If you had to Guess, What would be the percentage of sold out dealers ?

 

Rob

[5.4 Shelby]

eBay is a complex animal - more so than it appears.

 

I consider us to be somewhat an authority on eBay when it comes to selling cars there. Just because a vehicle doesn't meet reserve, doesn't mean it didn't sell above the reserve price. Sometimes you have to list a vehicle multiple times before it sells. Does that mean the market is "soft" or the asking price is too high? Not necessarily. It's all about timing. A listing only lasts, typically, a week or so, and many times it's just a matter of the listing being there when the "buyer" sees it. It's like having a showcase in a store. You leave it there and eventually someone that wants that item sees it, and they buy it. Sometimes you have to leave it there longer before a buyer comes along. Most of the time, the buyer doesn't surface until after the auction ends. The conversation usually starts something like this: buyer: "the auction on that truck that just ended, do you still have it...."

 

A case in point: we've sold more Ford GT's than I can count, yet if you were to look at the results of our eBay auctions, you'd say the market was nowhere near MSRP - the auctions typically end at $10k below sticker. Yet, we've sold nearly every one of our GT's at MSRP. You have a HUGE number of people that are interested in your vehicle, but the vast majority are wishful thinkers - I mean how else can you have a bid of $5000 for a brand new Mustang GT, or a GT500, or have bids of $50k for a GT?

 

Back to the GT500: a quick review of completed auctions shows that at least 20 GT500's have sold in the past month or two at an average selling price of $59k. That's $15k over MSRP. Knowing what I know about the relationship between selling prices on eBay and the average selling price off eBay, I find it very reasonable to conclude that the average actual selling price of GT500's is $15k-$20k over MSRP. The fact is that no matter how many people are willing to pay MSRP or a little over, the market, on average, will not come down to that level until it (the market) runs sufficiently low on people willing to pay $15-$20k over. I cannot stress this nuance enough - 90% of buyers can be at $5k over, but if the 10% that are willing to pay $15-$20k are of sufficient quantity to satisfy the current supply, then the price will stay at the higher level. Right now, the demand for these cars is higher than the supply. We get calls all the time from people willing to pay $60k if we had one. The problem is, that even as a dealer, we wouldn't be able to afford to sell them at that price because it costs too much to buy one from another dealer.

 

We've sold 7 GT500's, but only one actually sold on eBay. The rest were "reserve not met" yet every one sold for over $63k - in fact the lowest selling price was the one on eBay at $63k. On average, the auctions ended below $59k.

 

The bottom line is that the results of "unsuccessful" auctions can be, and are very misleading and give a very poor indication of where the actual market as a whole is.

 

Rat, as always, we value your input. You are one of the few guys in the business that I feel shoots it straight to us (along with the other guys on the site that have the same morals).

 

I understand what you are saying about cars selling after the sale. The other cars (Ford GTs and regular cars that you sell) are a different animal right now. They are MSRP (or less) cars that are not selling quickly. I still say the market is softening, though. For example, MOGFIS used to bid on every GT500 out there and bid up to at least 20k early on, then 15 over, then 12, etc.. Just before ebay took the bidders names off, they were only bidding 8-10 over. That is a true sign that they know the market is falling as they know they cannot get as much as they were early on.

 

My point with the max bids is that the max bids were near 20 early on, then 15, then 12 and now 10. This represents what most of the ebay buyers are willing to pay. Most of the buyers are serious about the car and place a bid up to what they will pay. Some of the more savvy ones may call after the sale. I'd bet most of those know what the bidding went to and shoot below that.

 

We really need a reliable purchase price poll.