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Very Interesting Ebay Activity


5.4 Shelby

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Since 10/29 only 2 cars have sold on ebay. All the rest are not meeting reserve. Bidding is stopping in the 10-12 over range with 2 cars under 10k. One of those stopped at 8k over and the other at 7k over. I think we are seeing the beginning of the end of ADMs! :rip:

 

:elefant: :bandance: :happy feet: :yahoo::rockon::banvictory::victory: :banana piano: :party2: (I refuse to use the cheerleader).

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Since 10/29 only 2 cars have sold on ebay. All the rest are not meeting reserve. Bidding is stopping in the 10-12 over range with 2 cars under 10k. One of those stopped at 8k over and the other at 7k over. I think we are seeing the beginning of the end of ADMs!

 

:elefant: :bandance: :happy feet: :yahoo::rockon::banvictory::victory: :banana piano: : (I refuse to use the cheerleader).

 

 

 

 

Great news!!!! horray!!!!!

 

:cheerleader:

(I'll use her! Ha Ha)

 

Judy

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Great news!!!! horray!!!!!

 

:cheerleader:

(I'll use her! Ha Ha)

 

Judy

 

 

The price in red/white is dropped. The one that is about 60 miles from me has been listed twice and only got to 54K. It has all the options so its about 9k over.

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The price in red/white is dropped. The one that is about 60 miles from me has been listed twice and only got to 54K. It has all the options so its about 9k over.

 

Can any of you e-bay watchers post what the cars sold for? is that info available. That would be nice info to have rather than the offers. :idea:

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Here's some Ebay data I got from the Completed Auctions back through Oct 26th.

 

4 Auctions ended with "Buy It Now" option: $74,000 / $62,900 / $58,995 / $58,900

 

4 Auctions ended with No Reserve to meet: $59,975 / $57,600 / $57,150 / $57,100

 

There were still dozens of auctions which did not meet the reserve... usually $60K or more

 

The bid history of the No Reserve auctions showed bids in the $50-55k range until the last day or two when bids moved up another $2K...

 

I think you will easily see winning bids in the low to mid 50s ($52-55K) by Jan/Feb timeframe.

 

Could be really good news for all us waiting on Job 2 builds...

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Here's some Ebay data I got from the Completed Auctions back through Oct 26th.

 

4 Auctions ended with "Buy It Now" option: $74,000 / $62,900 / $58,995 / $58,900

 

4 Auctions ended with No Reserve to meet: $59,975 / $57,600 / $57,150 / $57,100

 

There were still dozens of auctions which did not meet the reserve... usually $60K or more

 

The bid history of the No Reserve auctions showed bids in the $50-55k range until the last day or two when bids moved up another $2K...

 

I think you will easily see winning bids in the low to mid 50s ($52-55K) by Jan/Feb timeframe.

 

Could be really good news for all us waiting on Job 2 builds...

 

Thanx for digging that info up. It is just what I expected. The lowest 2 were sold at 15K over, and 1 for 20K over and the other one for 30K over. When I heard all the chatter about e-bay prices comming down, I wondered if it was true. Looks like the data you provided proves that it is NOT true. With Christmas comming and then spring shortly after that, IMHO the prices will stay the same. Time will tell. Lets dig this thread back up in Feb. and let it Die for now. : :rip::extinguish: I am not interested in :stirpot: so :fan:

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Thanx for digging that info up. It is just what I expected. The lowest 2 were sold at 15K over, and 1 for 20K over and the other one for 30K over. When I heard all the chatter about e-bay prices comming down, I wondered if it was true. Looks like the data you provided proves that it is NOT true. With Christmas comming and then spring shortly after that, IMHO the prices will stay the same. Time will tell. Lets dig this thread back up in Feb. and let it Die for now. : :rip::extinguish: I am not interested in :stirpot: so :fan:

 

Rob, as with anything, it depends on how you look at the data. What I see with the ebay stuff is that the reserves are set too high. They are not selling for what the sellers are expecting (hoping) to get. This is the first step in the prices falling. When 20k reserves are not being met, the reserves will fall to 15. When 15s are not being met, they will fall to 10 and so on. The few that are selling are getting the 15-20. I suspect that those are either people that don't research the price or simply don't care about the price.

 

ADMs were 20-30 over in August, 15-20 in Sept. 10-15 in Oct and most of the cars were selling. Now the cars are not selling at the current reserves. With the reserves set too high, the cars are going to start to accumulate (relatively speaking). When more cars become available and reserves are not getting met, the price will fall. It will likely be a while before we see them down to MSRP, but, recent activity is definitely encouraging.

 

If the cars were truly "sold out", then there would not be very many be cars listed on ebay and the ones that were would easily bring what they are asking. IT is early in the production run. The cars have only been arriving for about 3.5 months. There are plenty more cars to be made and sold.

 

Time will tell. Lets dig this thread back up in Feb. and let it Die for now. : :rip::extinguish: I am not interested in :stirpot: so :fan:

 

This thread is about ADMs. THis is a hot issue right now. I started this thread to keep the topic out of the other threads. If you don't want to talk about it, stay out of the thread. Several of us want to discuss this. I will not let it die. Trust me, I will bring this back up in Feb and see where they have gone.

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If the cars were truly "sold out", then there would not be very many be cars listed on ebay and the ones that were would easily bring what they are asking.

 

Since the ADM issue is a Hot one - I agree, could you please post how many cars are on E-bay. Last time I looked, they were all double and triple posted and I bet you that there was not 9 cars total. It is a very small market IMO. B) I enjoy seeing what the market will do, so lets keep watching.

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Since the ADM issue is a Hot one - I agree, could you please post how many cars are on E-bay. Last time I looked, they were all double and triple posted and I bet you that there was not 9 cars total. It is a very small market IMO. B) I enjoy seeing what the market will do, so lets keep watching.

 

21 currently. The double listing that you see are the featured listings. They put them at the top. If you scroll down to where it says optimize your selling success, the full list is there. If the demand were so much higher than the supply, those 21 cars would sell right away. The people willing to pay 15 or 20 are nearly gone.

 

Current ebay search

 

If you have an account, click on the completed listings on the left. You will need to sign in to view it.

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The people willing to pay 15 or 20 are nearly gone.

 

Alot of people do not have computers, and do not trust e-bay sellers. They also do not want to buy a car from the otherside of the United States because of the hassle. They see it and want it NOW. If they can't see it and touch it, they walk.

 

So IMO to say that the 15K to 20K buyers are nearly gone, this only applies to e-bay. Friday night a GT500 at Landmark Ford sold for 20K over.

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I would imagine that the Season we're in definitely has something to do with the lower pricing. In So-cal, where winter weather isn't a factor, dealers are still bringing in large ADM's.

Come Spring, in the Northern climes where the majority of America's population resides, prices will Spike up again. We'll see. Might be a good time to Buy right now.

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I would imagine that the Season we're in definitely has something to do with the lower pricing. In So-cal, where winter weather isn't a factor, dealers are still bringing in large ADM's.

Come Spring, in the Northern climes where the majority of America's population resides, prices will Spike up again. We'll see. Might be a good time to Buy right now.

 

 

 

I also think that the more they are out there the less the ADM's will be.

 

 

 

:kuko:

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I also think that the more they are out there the less the ADM's will be.

:kuko:

 

Larry, the problem is that the feed being given to the herd is in such small quanity that it is being gobbled up as soon as it arrives. The feed bucket never gets full, its empty still. Go look at the dealerships!

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Larry, the problem is that the feed being given to the herd is in such small quanity that it is being gobbled up as soon as it arrives. The feed bucket never gets full, its empty still. Go look at the dealerships!

 

But, the herd is not as big as everyone thinks. The hype is huge. The actual purchasing population is not endless. If it were, all of the "unlucky" customers would be gobbling these ebay cars up. Most of the dealers have decided to wait until they get the car and try to get top dollar for it. That is actually going to hurt them as a whole. Their list of 20 people are duplicated at each dealership in the region. I know I talked to at least 20 dealers in my area.

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  • 3 weeks later...

Update:

 

I checked ebay again this morning. I found the follwing:

 

Between 11/18 and 11/23 thirty-one auctions ended excluding the ones that were ended early as the car sold locally.

 

Of those 31, only 5 cars sold.

 

The ADMs were 10, 10, 11, 12 and 14 over. The highest were the oldest.

 

The ones that did not sell and had bid activity ranged from 7 over to 11 over as the highest bid.

 

ebay has taken the names of the bidders off, so, it is impossible to tell which ones were dealers such as MOGFIS.

 

What I gather from this is that the market has set itself to about 10 over currently. The dealers are still trying to get more than that and setting the reserve too high. I think if they would lower the reserve price to 10 over, they would likely sell those cars.

 

We are slowly seeing the market slide down. It has gone from 20-30 over in July/August to 15-18 over in Sept/Oct and now to 10 over in Nov/Dec.

 

I still stand by my March MSRP statement.

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Update:

 

I checked ebay again this morning. I found the follwing:

 

Between 11/18 and 11/23 thirty-one auctions ended excluding the ones that were ended early as the car sold locally.

 

Of those 31, only 5 cars sold.

 

The ADMs were 10, 10, 11, 12 and 14 over. The highest were the oldest.

 

The ones that did not sell and had bid activity ranged from 7 over to 11 over as the highest bid.

 

ebay has taken the names of the bidders off, so, it is impossible to tell which ones were dealers such as MOGFIS.

 

What I gather from this is that the market has set itself to about 10 over currently. The dealers are still trying to get more than that and setting the reserve too high. I think if they would lower the reserve price to 10 over, they would likely sell those cars.

 

We are slowly seeing the market slide down. It has gone from 20-30 over in July/August to 15-18 over in Sept/Oct and now to 10 over in Nov/Dec.

 

I still stand by my March MSRP statement.

 

I have said this before, and I will say it again. E-bay is a very small fraction of the market. Many do not even know about it, and many do not want to travel to a state far away to buy a car, or deal with site unseen shipping arrangements or money wire transfers. Many of the buyers do not surf the internet or even have a computer, they are babyboomers or retired people with some extra cash. There are also the car collectors. 07 production ends Feb. or March. I believe the production numbers will be lower than what everyone thought. This will throw a monkey wrench at the MSRP waiters.

 

I bet the reason that the production is ending in Feb. / March is because they have to crank out 6000 Shelby GT's by June.

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I have said this before, and I will say it again. E-bay is a very small fraction of the market. Many do not even know about it, and many do not want to travel to a state far away to buy a car, or deal with site unseen shipping arrangements or money wire transfers. Many of the buyers do not surf the internet or even have a computer, they are babyboomers or retired people with some extra cash. There are also the car collectors. 07 production ends Feb. or March. I believe the production numbers will be lower than what everyone thought. This will throw a monkey wrench at the MSRP waiters.

 

I bet the reason that the production is ending in Feb. / March is because they have to crank out 6000 Shelby GT's by June.

 

Rob, I value your opinion, but, the ebay market IS representative of the whole market. It shows what people are willing to pay. Do you have a better source to gauge market value or is it just guessing on your part based on when you think production will end? I agree with whoever made the statement in your thread about the 2007 initial allotment being finished by FEb or Mar. Then, everything made from then until June will be the "share of nation" cars.

 

Ford has no reason to stop or slow production of the GT500. The Shelby GTs are regular Mustang GTs that are shipped to Shelby Autos. There are no special production needs. Typical Ford model year production ends in May and the next year starts in June. Stopping short of that makes no business sense.

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Rob, I value your opinion, but, the ebay market IS representative of the whole market. It shows what people are willing to pay. Do you have a better source to gauge market value or is it just guessing on your part based on when you think production will end? I agree with whoever made the statement in your thread about the 2007 initial allotment being finished by FEb or Mar. Then, everything made from then until June will be the "share of nation" cars.

 

Ford has no reason to stop or slow production of the GT500. The Shelby GTs are regular Mustang GTs that are shipped to Shelby Autos. There are no special production needs. Typical Ford model year production ends in May and the next year starts in June. Stopping short of that makes no business sense.

 

I agree it shows what 5 people paid. Five people is not a very large amount of people to base the trend on.

 

I am basing my opinion on the fact that GT500's in my local area and many other local areas are sold out, and yes the fact that Ralf and other Ford reps are sayin that production will end in Feb/March does fuel my opinion. Share of the nation cars might not even happen. My zone rep says 07 Shelby production is done in March. Also, Ford can make other cars to make money, so they could free up the line to pump out other cars.

 

As for the Shelby GT, They are only Black and White cars, and they need to crank out 6000 of them pretty quickly. I hope you are right, that they make 10,000 2007's and the ADM drops off to MSRP, but I do not see it for the reasons I stated above.

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I have a question If Ford plans to make 9,300 to 10,000 Shelbys how is it that we think by March you will get one for msrp when alot of dealers have sold there 07` allotment & have a list for 08`. Also they are say the 08`will have a slight price increase. I know dealers don`t practice telling the truth but this price increase is coming from Ford exc.

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I have a question If Ford plans to make 9,300 to 10,000 Shelbys how is it that we think by March you will get one for msrp when alot of dealers have sold there 07` allotment & have a list for 08`. Also they are say the 08`will have a slight price increase. I know dealers don`t practice telling the truth but this price increase is coming from Ford exc.

 

shelby001,

I am with you on this. I just do not see MSRP by March. Spring and Summer will have a high demand for these cars. I do think that when Dodge and GM come out with their cars, that only then will the ADM relief start to happen.

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I agree it shows what 5 people paid. Five people is not a very large amount of people to base the trend on.

It shows what 31 people paid or are willing to pay over a 5 day period.

 

I am basing my opinion on the fact that GT500's in my local area and many other local areas are sold out

So, your local area is a larger representative area than ebay? Many other areas? Not the ones I check in. Most are waiting to get the cars. They have lists, but, they are meaningless until the cash is on the table. Even the presold cars are meaningless until the cash is transferred. I personally know of several cars that have been backed out of.

and yes the fact that Ralf and other Ford reps are sayin that production will end in Feb/March does fuel my opinion. Share of the nation cars might not even happen. My zone rep says 07 Shelby production is done in March. Also, Ford can make other cars to make money, so they could free up the line to pump out other cars.

I don't know if this is true or not, but, I would say it needs clarification.

 

As for the Shelby GT, They are only Black and White cars, and they need to crank out 6000 of them pretty quickly.

 

The color of the car does not affect how many Mustangs they crank out. In fact it would make it easier as they won't have to change the paint colors as often.

 

I hope you are right, that they make 10,000 2007's and the ADM drops off to MSRP, but I do not see it for the reasons I stated above.

 

I do see it for the reasons that I stated. The market is softening. I may be a little optimistic with March, but, we will see. Every car made that gets ADM eventually comes down. So will this one.

 

I have a question If Ford plans to make 9,300 to 10,000 Shelbys how is it that we think by March you will get one for msrp when alot of dealers have sold there 07` allotment & have a list for 08`. Also they are say the 08`will have a slight price increase. I know dealers don`t practice telling the truth but this price increase is coming from Ford exc.

 

Your last statement pretty well tells it all. The dealers are tweaking the truth to get you to get nervous and pay the ADM. The '07 are not sold out. Neither are the '08s. A price increase would only lower sales, not increase them (if it had any affect at all, which I doubt).

 

The last time I called SVT, I asked them about production number and years. I told them I was waiting until Spring or early Summer because I expected the ADMs to drop. The guy on the line said "that is what WE expect as well."

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Unless it's from a back woods dealer, I've got 5k that says list is a pipe dream in the 2007 year model. 2008, I figure the chances are 75% above, 25% at list, cold day in hell below that.

 

Lutzcat

 

 

I agree with you, that's why I said phooey on the whole deal and bought my 07 GT. I refuse to pay an ADM on any car, just my personal decision.

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As of now, there are 4000 plus that have sold or sitting in the showroom, mine was numbered from 2800-3000 range, picked it up 5 weeks ago and to this day, I've seen only one other on the road. My son seen one in St. Pete area. In the Tampa Bay area, the collectors or investors have bought most of them. Take the Cobras for example, they were on the road, you could see them. Last I heard, all dealers were sold out here for the year model. I meant to say stealerships. Prices will fluctuate from area to area, Ebay just puts a bottom on prices.

 

Lutzcat

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It shows what 31 people paid or are willing to pay over a 5 day period.

So, your local area is a larger representative area than ebay? Many other areas?

 

Many members on this site have reported that their local areas are sold out for 2007. It is a fact. I am not trying to get you all wound up, so I hope you do not take it that way.

 

The Clock is ticking for the 2007 GT500. 4 more months of production. You will see.

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Many members on this site have reported that their local areas are sold out for 2007. It is a fact. I am not trying to get you all wound up, so I hope you do not take it that way.

 

The Clock is ticking for the 2007 GT500. 4 more months of production. You will see.

 

 

 

Was you in my head? Read my previous post!

 

Scott

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Was you in my head? Read my previous post!

 

Scott

 

yeh, we were both posting at the same time. I feel bad for the guys that are waiting for the MSRP deals. I think you are right about the collectors scooping up the cars too. I think that allot of baby boomers have also purchased these cars.

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yeh, we were both posting at the same time. I feel bad for the guys that are waiting for the MSRP deals. I think you are right about the collectors scooping up the cars too. I think that allot of baby boomers have also purchased these cars.

 

 

It's not just collectors, investors have jumped in to, not just the ones that want to flip them, but the buy and hold crowd. Too much liquidity still floating.

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It's not just collectors, investors have jumped in to, not just the ones that want to flip them, but the buy and hold crowd. Too much liquidity still floating.

 

I do not think that buying this car to flip it is a very wise investment. Once it rolls of the lot, it is a used car. I quess if you trailered it home, and left all the plastic and window stickers on it, you could still call it new.

 

I wonder about the investor end of it. Risky.

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