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How low can Crude Oil go??


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I was reading a report on FOX News this morning that oil could drop to $25 a barrel next year and gas could go under $1. http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,462284,00.html

 

 

If people will stop fearing a depression and start putting money back into the economy that could really bolster the big 3's sales and possibly pull them out of their hole. My speculation anyway.

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What amazes me the most are the so-called "experts" that are called upon by the media for their "expert" opinion on these issues.

 

Just 6 months ago, how many times did we hear them say "The days of oil below $100 are over!. These high prices are here to stay!" blah...blah...blah...

 

They were wrong, wrong, wrong!!!

 

So, they are once again asked by the media for their "expert" opinions on oil below $50. And we are expected to believe them (this time).

 

Have these guys EVER been right?????

 

What a bunch of clowns!!!!!

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What amazes me the most are the so-called "experts" that are called upon by the media for their "expert" opinion on these issues.

 

Just 6 months ago, how many times did we hear them say "The days of oil below $100 are over!. These high prices are here to stay!" blah...blah...blah...

 

They were wrong, wrong, wrong!!!

 

So, they are once again asked by the media for their "expert" opinions on oil below $50. And we are expected to believe them (this time).

:yup:

and we will see $5.00 p/gallon gasoline at the pumps soon.

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Hold on to your coconuts because oil will go up again....Don't fool yourself into thinking other wise.

 

 

We are still getting raped with the price of gas here in Canada...We are paying now what the U.S

 

was paying when the barrel of oil was at it's highest. :banghead:

 

 

Reg $3.18 a Gal

 

Prem $ 3.44 a Gal

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Thank you for your attention and understanding Page.

 

It is beyond me in light of the present situation how people can and will say that the oil companies control the price.

 

Please remember those billion dollar investments in developing deep water Gulf of Mexico potential oil fields must continue even in these times of greatly diminished cash flow. The same can be said about additional investments with foreign governments.

 

Those amazing profits that most were complaining about this summer are what will sustain those committed multi-year investments which will be crucial in the coming years as we transition to new energy sources. Without them, we would rapidly face conditions after the economic recovery that led to this summer's price shock.

 

For those who claim that the hurricanes were an excuse to somehow raise the prices (even though ALL of the data showed that the price of oil and gasoline fell nationwide during this period) let me suggest that you learn more about this before you make wild claims. My company has had to cancel the exploration wells on the shelf because the drill rig that we were going to use is now being used to permanently plug and abandon some wells that were damaged in the storm and recomplete and repair others. We have to do this at the direction of the Minerals Management Service of the US Government (although we would have done this anyway).

 

Our production fell over 10% due to the storm damage. That may not seem significant but when you look at the drop in demand that has helped create these low prices, you will see that the demand is down only about 7% right now.

 

That brings me to my final observation: Supply and demand act as a small signal in the price of oil. Speculation acts as a tremendous amplifier of that signal and creates these wild swings. A lot of the price increase was caused by people getting out of the last "sure thing", mortgage backed securities, and investing in the next "sure thing" oil. This was amplified even more by the negative swing in the value of the dollar which dipped to an all time low this summer and has dramatically recovered this fall.

 

It is possible for oil to spike down further although a helpful rule of thumb that I use is: the faster the price moves up or down, the shorter the duration of the spike.

 

My sense is that oil should be at about $60/bbl. I also realize that speculation will always cause deviations from that price.

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This is just those damned greedy oil companies - giving away money again :):):):)

 

Moabman - that was for you :)

 

Actually, this all will probably help to support the oil companies positions that they need periods of high profits to offset the periods of low profit.

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