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Is demand up or down via ADM?


a gt 500

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I love this car. However, I think when the Camaro and Challenger come out, it will effect the sales of the GT500. Once all the people that have to have the first ones of everything is gone and they will find another toy they like more, then these cars will sell for MSRP all over the place. It is going to happen and all the people that has paid $10,000 and up will continue to cry and try to convince the masses that it will never happen. Just have patience everyone, you will be able to buy GT500's for sticker. :happy feet:

The ones that are crying are the ones that don't have one. I stopped crying & started enjoying a very cool car.

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I love this car. However, I think when the Camaro and Challenger come out, it will effect the sales of the GT500. Once all the people that have to have the first ones of everything is gone and they will find another toy they like more, then these cars will sell for MSRP all over the place. It is going to happen and all the people that has paid $10,000 and up will continue to cry and try to convince the masses that it will never happen. Just have patience everyone, you will be able to buy GT500's for sticker. :happy feet:

:violin: Cry me a river...

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B)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Five Oh B @ Mar 7 2007, 12:06 PM) 111148[/snapback]</div><div class='quotemain'><!--quotec-->"Every dealer sets their own ADM, so it can range from $0 to infinity, depending on the local market for each dealer. I'd say that nationwide, the average ADM is probably in the $10K to $15K range. I work at a Ford dealership, and our ADM on 2007 GT500's is now $0 (well, actually we're sold out of 2007's, so there aren't any to mark up - LOL). We pre-sold 4 of our 5 at $10K over, and 1 at $25K over, and all have come and gone. The only dealership anywhere near us with GT500's on the ground available today wants about $25K ADM's on each of theirs. $25K over was the average around here at most dealers all year long.

 

Demand is still bigger than supply, and the 2008's won't start production until June, but even then there is no guarantee that supply will catch up with demand. I'd guess that the ADM's will continue for quite some time - much longer than most new "hot cars.""

 

I cannot tell you how much I enjoy watching all the GT500 buyers spend their money! It amazes me to see this much demand and so many people paying 55-90K for this car! I really like the car, but will never buy one over MSRP. I for one cannot afford to. Now don't get me wrong, I do not blame any of you for spending so much on the massive ADM's. If I were rich, I would too! It's just kind of like a train wreck... you kind of want to watch it even though you know it's wrong. It amazes me how many people have this much money. I thought I had a good job (90K) but compared to all you I am clearly dirt poor. I do agree adm's will stay for a while, yet somehow I disagree with some here to claim the car will only be made for 2, maybe 3 years. Let's face it guys, Ford is in a world of hurt. If Ford can sell them this quickly and easily (even though the Dealers are the ones profiting from the adm), why would they stop making them? Does anyone here honestly think Ford will not continue to up the ante and make Mustangs with this much or even more power? Why would they? Ever hear of the possible Z07 Vette? Perhaps the new Chevy Camaro? Please. Ford will HAVE to keep up with the competition. As for the belief this car will be considered "rare", I doubt it. Shelby’s are collectable to some degree, perhaps, but rare? I think not. Having said all that, I really like it. I would buy one. I will likely get one when there is no adm or they eventually lose the "Shelby" namesake, but make no mistake, fast Mustangs are here to stay. In the interim, I'll have to "suffer" with my 530HP Saleen and 4-cam 1990 Mustang LX. Guys my hats off. I am envious! Now if we could just get Ford to put these cars on a serious diet....

Got any Cheese Whiz, I am almost out and got nothin to dip my celery in.

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I love this car. However, I think when the Camaro and Challenger come out, it will effect the sales of the GT500. Once all the people that have to have the first ones of everything is gone and they will find another toy they like more, then these cars will sell for MSRP all over the place. It is going to happen and all the people that has paid $10,000 and up will continue to cry and try to convince the masses that it will never happen. Just have patience everyone, you will be able to buy GT500's for sticker. :happy feet:

I am not crying. I am driving one.... :shift:

 

I am not going to try to convince you or anyone else that it will never happen. Wait it out and see. I don't care, I am driving one.... :shift:

 

I hope you find one to, so you can be driving one..... :shift:

 

I am out of Cheeze Whiz now.... :baby:

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I love this car. However, I think when the Camaro and Challenger come out, it will effect the sales of the GT500. Once all the people that have to have the first ones of everything is gone and they will find another toy they like more, then these cars will sell for MSRP all over the place. It is going to happen and all the people that has paid $10,000 and up will continue to cry and try to convince the masses that it will never happen. Just have patience everyone, you will be able to buy GT500's for sticker. :happy feet:

 

 

Will you sell me some of the pot you're smoking. :headspin:

 

HSURB

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Will you sell me some of the pot you're smoking. :headspin:

 

HSURB

 

 

Hey Tim

 

drop by after a few weeks, when you make it up this way. I should have a GT"650" by then :happy feet: and also some wheel hop fixes. We'll go out and beat on it a little bit.

 

John

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Hey Tim

 

drop by after a few weeks, when you make it up this way. I should have a GT"650" by then :happy feet: and also some wheel hop fixes. We'll go out and beat on it a little bit.

 

John

 

 

John:

 

I'll make it a point to look you up next time I'm in town. My wife was at her sisters just last weekend, so it might be a while before I'm back.

 

I'm really curious to see how your car reacts to the wheel hop fix. Are you adding lower control arms?

 

HSURB

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That was probably blacks automotive. They specialize in mustangs. They sold that car for 50 something. Btw since your around town I live by ucf. Care to meet up sometime maybe at a show?

 

Yeah it was Blacks. As far as car shows, I doubt you will see me at one, never been to one. Right now Im working 6 days a week so I have very little free time. Been that way for many long years and probably will be for some time.

 

 

KC666

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Are you guys sooooooo naive to think Ford will only make 8-10,000 GT500's. They have already said that they will make one for everyone that wants one. :shift:

 

 

One for everyone who wants one, really. What level of "want" do you think Ford was talking about. The below MSRP want or the ADM want?????

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One for everyone who wants one, really. What level of "want" do you think Ford was talking about. The below MSRP want or the ADM want?????

 

<lol> for sure...

 

Actually, MSRP-want would have to be Ford's intent (since they're the manufacturer), but there's certainly a lot of wiggle room in there as you suggest ;-)

 

There may also be a new form of mischief in the mix. If you go to a dealer and tell them you want to place an order for a GT500 they'll tell you (most likely <lol>) their allocation is spoken for and for x-much over MSRP. How many MSRP orders is that quelling??? That demand never gets visible directly to Ford, as opposed to a 'normal' car where the dealer will likely just put the preliminary order in the system.

 

So if you're a dealer aggressively e-tailing the GT500, you'd sort of like this to stay the way it is, yes? Because, in effect, you're controlling the supply in a way that assures it stays below demand to assure high ADMs. Never underestimate the level of mischief some dealers will strive for <lol> Is Ford aware and playing dump because Tremec (or other) constraints make the point moot? Or are the constraints soon or alreadygone?

 

I wonder if that's why Ford has been actively marketing the GT500 in cell-ads, direct mailings and more ... to guage demand that the order system would normally 'see' so they can plan accordingly... ther are a lot of dealers heavily invested in trans-shipped double-ADM cars that a production increase would crush! I'm just guesing at this, but I find it curious to be aggressively marketing a car that you can't even make enough of.

 

Makes you wonder...

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I find it curious to be aggressively marketing a car that you can't even make enough of.

 

The dealership I work at only got 5 GT500's for 2007. All sold and gone already. However, we've sold several customers on our GT500 list other Mustangs (GT's and California Specials, mostly). And, several others on the list have bought other vehicles that they needed for other duties (i.e. trucks, SUV's, cars for the kids, etc.). So, my best guess is that our GT500 list turned into about 15 sales even though we only got 5 GT500's.

 

So, market a "halo" car that drives traffic to the dealership, and other vehicles end up getting sold. IMHO, that's probably why a manufacturer would want to agressively market a car that they can't make enough of.

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B)-->

QUOTE(Five Oh B @ Mar 12 2007, 06:31 PM) 113810[/snapback]
The dealership I work at only got 5 GT500's for 2007. All sold and gone already. However, we've sold several customers on our GT500 list other Mustangs (GT's and California Specials, mostly). And, several others on the list have bought other vehicles that they needed for other duties (i.e. trucks, SUV's, cars for the kids, etc.). So, my best guess is that our GT500 list turned into about 15 sales even though we only got 5 GT500's.

 

So, market a "halo" car that drives traffic to the dealership, and other vehicles end up getting sold. IMHO, that's probably why a manufacturer would want to agressively market a car that they can't make enough of.

 

Good thinking, Brian... that does make sense ...especially if it helps move some V6s too (and others).

 

You might be able to help me understand this... do you get a sense that Ford knows (or is there some business mechanism to help them know) the actual demand for the car -- whatever that may be?

 

Aside from the order system, is there some way Ford can guage demand for a car if orders aren't being placed (because allocation is less than demand)? Just curious if Ford has some mechanism to solicit dealer feedback on 'backlogged' customer demand as opposed to it being a dealer->region roll-up estimate.

 

I figure there are few cars this situation ever applies to so Corporate 'instrumentation' on customer demand in this instance might be problematic -- dunno...

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B)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Five Oh B @ Mar 12 2007, 06:31 PM) 113810[/snapback]</div><div class='quotemain'><!--quotec-->The dealership I work at only got 5 GT500's for 2007. All sold and gone already. However, we've sold several customers on our GT500 list other Mustangs (GT's and California Specials, mostly). And, several others on the list have bought other vehicles that they needed for other duties (i.e. trucks, SUV's, cars for the kids, etc.). So, my best guess is that our GT500 list turned into about 15 sales even though we only got 5 GT500's.

 

So, market a "halo" car that drives traffic to the dealership, and other vehicles end up getting sold. IMHO, that's probably why a manufacturer would want to agressively market a car that they can't make enough of.

 

Good thinking, Brian... that does make sense ...especially if it helps move some V6s too (and others).

 

You might be able to help me understand this... do you get a sense that Ford knows (or is there some business mechanism to help them know) the actual demand for the car -- whatever that may be?

 

Aside from the order system, is there some way Ford can guage demand for a car if orders aren't being placed (because allocation is less than demand)? Just curious if Ford has some mechanism to solicit dealer feedback on 'backlogged' customer demand as opposed to it being a dealer->region roll-up estimate.

 

I figure there are few cars this situation ever applies to so Corporate 'instrumentation' on customer demand in this instance might be problematic -- dunno...

 

68fastback - aside from the order system, there is another avenue for Ford to "guage" demand for the GT500. Ford is one of the leading automakers with respect to marketing efforts online and getting customers to submit information online to dealers. Websites like FordDirect.com, FordVehicles.com, Ford.com, etc. all forward "leads" for new Ford vehicles from interested customers to the dealer(s) nearest the customer. And a few (not all) third party online services also channel customers through the Ford system. Ford can easily track where these leads are sent, how many there are, and which vehicles they're interested in. Ford can also segregate these leads to count "unique" leads - that way nobody is counted multiple times just because they inquired with multiple dealers. So, yes, Ford can see how many people are asking about the GT500 online. They're missing the people who aren't online, but 80% or more of new car buyers are shopping (or at least researching) online before making their purchase.

 

Now, on the flipside, just knowing how many people are interested in your product doesn't translate into how many people will actually want (or be able) to buy that product. Many cannot buy (price, credit, etc.) and many others drop out when they buy something else (other brand of car, a house, kid's college tuition, etc.). Lots of people want a GT500 (many can't afford one). Lots of people can afford a GT500 (many don't want one). The real trick is to find the people who not only want a GT500, but who can also afford a GT500. You gotta have both pieces to that puzzle, or you have nothing.

 

We've had hundreds of people contact us about the GT500, but the vast majority are just looking. We are constantly purifying our own internal list to better guage local demand for the GT500. Of the hundreds who've inquired, we "only" have 71 on our GT500 list today (as of March 13th, 2007), and the number fluctuates daily as more people ask to be on the list and others ask to be taken off the list. And, we are just one of 3700+ Ford dealers! Granted, many customers are on multiple lists at multiple dealerships trying to improve their odds of getting a GT500, but it is quite obvious that demand outstrips supply by a wide margin so I trust Ford is well aware of this fact.

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KingCobra666, I clicked your link and read your story and quite frankly I think there are alot of us that can relate to your anxiety about buying the car and paying the extra money. I have used the "life is too short" story with my wife and I honestly believe that. If you have always wanted that one special car your whole life, you will find a way to pay for it. My wife asked me if I would give up drinking beer and I said "Hell no"! That was the end of my offers to sacrifice. Anyway, nicely put in writing! By the way, I noticed a dealer sell a car on Ebay for $11k over and I contacted them. They gave me the same deal but I have to wait for it to be built. I also will have to drive across the State of Florida to pick it up. I contacted 10 dealers in 3 states prior to this and not one would sell me the car for less than $20k over.

 

2007 Shelby Cobra GT500

Ordered 022207

Received VIN on 031207 (1ZVHT885275329484)

Scheduled for production 032607

Black with White Stripes

Nav System

Premium Trim Package

Sirius Radio

 

2004 Eddie Bauer Expedition

2004 Jeep Liberty

2006 Mustang GT

Formerly owned 3 Corvettes

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B)-->

QUOTE(Five Oh B @ Mar 13 2007, 04:41 PM) 114334[/snapback]
68fastback - aside from the order system, there is another avenue for Ford to "guage" demand for the GT500. Ford is one of the leading automakers with respect to marketing efforts online and getting customers to submit information online to dealers. Websites like FordDirect.com, FordVehicles.com, Ford.com, etc. all forward "leads" for new Ford vehicles from interested customers to the dealer(s) nearest the customer. And a few (not all) third party online services also channel customers through the Ford system. Ford can easily track where these leads are sent, how many there are, and which vehicles they're interested in. Ford can also segregate these leads to count "unique" leads - that way nobody is counted multiple times just because they inquired with multiple dealers. So, yes, Ford can see how many people are asking about the GT500 online. They're missing the people who aren't online, but 80% or more of new car buyers are shopping (or at least researching) online before making their purchase.

 

Now, on the flipside, just knowing how many people are interested in your product doesn't translate into how many people will actually want (or be able) to buy that product. Many cannot buy (price, credit, etc.) and many others drop out when they buy something else (other brand of car, a house, kid's college tuition, etc.). Lots of people want a GT500 (many can't afford one). Lots of people can afford a GT500 (many don't want one). The real trick is to find the people who not only want a GT500, but who can also afford a GT500. You gotta have both pieces to that puzzle, or you have nothing.

 

We've had hundreds of people contact us about the GT500, but the vast majority are just looking. We are constantly purifying our own internal list to better guage local demand for the GT500. Of the hundreds who've inquired, we "only" have 71 on our GT500 list today (as of March 13th, 2007), and the number fluctuates daily as more people ask to be on the list and others ask to be taken off the list. And, we are just one of 3700+ Ford dealers! Granted, many customers are on multiple lists at multiple dealerships trying to improve their odds of getting a GT500, but it is quite obvious that demand outstrips supply by a wide margin so I trust Ford is well aware of this fact.

 

Thanks, Brian ...always appreciate you insight and I don't mean to act like I'm asking you to speak for Ford, but you're such a resource on such questions...

 

Maybe I'm doing someting wrong, but when I go into the Ford website and then to 07 Mustang Build and Price to configure and price a GT500, they don't even include the GT500 as a choice -- has been that way since the car was first offered.

 

So maybe the dealer lists are the best guage, and those are likely fraught with duplication and not visible directly to Ford, I would imagine. For example, if 50 of the 70 on your dealer list are want & qualify customers (just for argument) an you were allocated only 5, you could actually sell 10x allocation!! I would think Ford would want to quench that oppportunity. If not possible in '07, how may of those 71 would carry to '08? If Ford knew that, would they satifsy it? Dunno -- but I would hope they would want to (aside from the exclusivity of ownership of this car from the enthusiast's viewpoint -- different 'problem' imo).

 

Dunno, I still don't get the feeling Ford really has a handle on demand for this car as opposed to fully knowing but having decided not to satisfy the demand (for whatever reason). I agree the website would typically be the best mechanism since they can always apply experience/historical 'windage' to convert click-thrus to estimated demand, etc, but that doesn't seem to exist for the GT500.

 

I've also (previously) tried individual dealer websites and many also seem to exclude the GT500, or include it but no pricing is available, or pricing is available on the site but it's not the actual price you'd pay ...all problems to my mind.

 

Seems to me Ford is not equipped from a corporate/business instrumentation p.o.v. to deal with assesing demand for a limited-supply high-demand SE. Viewed another way, if the true demand (want + can-afford) were 2-3 times present production (for argument sake -- whether or not Ford can or would mfg that many), would they even know that for this car with any degree of precision compared to other vehicles? Doesn't seem so -- dunno. At best they'd know it's in demand and the dealers would/could help quantify that, but that's very broken from a business perspective, imo -- especially for this car, in 2007 ...with a highly competitive environment looming for MY'09.

 

Of course SE mustangs are a tiny piece of Ford's business. And Ford could be intentionally excluding the '500 from the Build and Price website because they can only make so many. But that just seems nutty too. I'd rather get someone into a dealer who doesn't have a car (and maybe buy a GT or C/S or..), than have them close the webpage in frustration and never see them again. Customer frustration from following the GT500 down dead-end websites is a business mortal sin, imo, ...and I'm not even set on buying one!

 

We've heard of so many in here who have $43K burning a hole in their pocket and can't get one at MSRP or are frustrated with having to spend huge amounts of time following dead-end leads calling dealers who have no free allocation, or find cars at prices that disagree with their sensabilities (for whatever reason) -- hell, the customer can't even configure the car on the Ford site!

 

I'd sure like to know what's really going on with this because, imo, either it's intentional or some executive has a fundamantal business problem -- known or blind. Either way it's unforgiveable, imo.

 

Sorry for the :rant: (and I realize this is not 5.0B's problem -- or anyone else in here ...just tossing some frustrations up on the table).

 

-Dan

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KingCobra666, I clicked your link and read your story and quite frankly I think there are alot of us that can relate to your anxiety about buying the car and paying the extra money. I have used the "life is too short" story with my wife and I honestly believe that. If you have always wanted that one special car your whole life, you will find a way to pay for it. My wife asked me if I would give up drinking beer and I said "Hell no"! That was the end of my offers to sacrifice. Anyway, nicely put in writing! By the way, I noticed a dealer sell a car on Ebay for $11k over and I contacted them. They gave me the same deal but I have to wait for it to be built. I also will have to drive across the State of Florida to pick it up. I contacted 10 dealers in 3 states prior to this and not one would sell me the car for less than $20k over.

 

2007 Shelby Cobra GT500

Ordered 022207

Received VIN on 031207 (1ZVHT885275329484)

Scheduled for production 032607

Black with White Stripes

Nav System

Premium Trim Package

Sirius Radio

 

2004 Eddie Bauer Expedition

2004 Jeep Liberty

2006 Mustang GT

Formerly owned 3 Corvettes

Congrats on getting your VIN, sounds like you got a good deal at 11k. You will not regret it, its one hell of a fun car to drive.

 

 

If you ever have a chance. I would love to get a look at your color combo King.

 

Roger

 

One of these days I need to get over to see Tim at Greenway and give him ride, maybe you could meet up with us. I been meaning to get down there and check out the S-GT, Ive yet to see one in person. I have been working ridiculous amounts but if and when I can ever get some time to do something other than work, chores and family commitments I will have him give you a call and maybe we can meet up.

 

 

KC666

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I'd sure like to know what's really going on with this because, imo, either it's intentional or some executive has a fundamantal business problem -- known or blind. Either way it's unforgiveable, imo.

 

Sorry for the :rant: (and I realize this is not 5.0B's problem -- or anyone else in here ...just tossing some frustrations up on the table).

 

-Dan

Dan, I wonder if maybe Ford figures...."heck, these people are enthusiasts....and they'll find out everything about the car without us having to design and maintain that on our website. Heck, these cars are so in demand we can cut costs on other marketing avenues."

 

Maybe?

 

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I'm in the car rental business - I was making a reservation for a gentleman this afternoon and he was disappointed because we didn't have a Ford pickup for him to reserve - all we had was GM. I told him I understood - I was a Ford man and I was waiting for my first new car in 18 years and it was a Ford product. He asked me what it was and I told him a GT500. He said he was a Ford dealer and asked me how much I was paying for it, I told him $5000 over MSRP. He said he was from the East Coast and they had been selling them for $30,000 over MSRP. Who knows how serious he was, but he did tell me if I received the car and I was not happy with it to please give him a call ane he would be happy to pay me $5000 more than I had paid for it. Like I say - who knows how serious he was, but he said he had buyers standing in line.

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I'm in the car rental business - I was making a reservation for a gentleman this afternoon and he was disappointed because we didn't have a Ford pickup for him to reserve - all we had was GM. I told him I understood - I was a Ford man and I was waiting for my first new car in 18 years and it was a Ford product. He asked me what it was and I told him a GT500. He said he was a Ford dealer and asked me how much I was paying for it, I told him $5000 over MSRP. He said he was from the East Coast and they had been selling them for $30,000 over MSRP. Who knows how serious he was, but he did tell me if I received the car and I was not happy with it to please give him a call ane he would be happy to pay me $5000 more than I had paid for it. Like I say - who knows how serious he was, but he said he had buyers standing in line.

 

I would say that's a serious offer. We get calls/notices from locator services all the time with GT500's being offered at $15k over - and that's dealer to dealer.

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