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Okay, here is an ebay auction, just ended:

 

http://cgi.ebay.com/ebaymotors/Ford-Mustan...036717380QQrdZ1

 

Appears to have been no reserve, many bids (including, however, the notorious Georgia you know whos), and it closes at over $60k. Seller appears to be in Oregon. I have no idea how cost of living there compares with NYC, LA, DC, etc. Would that make the price 65 or 70 k in those areas?

 

What does this say, if anything, about what a willing buyer is willing to pay a willing seller TODAY?

 

And please lets dispense with all the knee jerk rhetoric on either side of the "ADMs are evil" issue, a la "all ebay auctions are frauds," or, "you are just bitter because you can't afford it."

 

I am interested in thoughts on current market conditions.

 

:sos:

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My first thought is that we are just getting into what I would term the "second wave" of customer cars. That would mean the VIP's and absolutly gotta have it types are starting to dimish somewhat, as the fall/winter appproaches and most buyers of the car as a toy or collectable are simply going to stare at them until spring in most parts of North America.

We may see another few weeks of high demand/pay any price in an effort to get one for a few weeks of look at me, however most area's have at least one or two now, and the first in town thinking has to be diminishing a little.

And has anybody else noticed that it seems to be a preponderance of verts that are still available? I wonder if the lack of stripes and that visible at a distance thing are having any effect on cars delivered to date?

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My first thought is that we are just getting into what I would term the "second wave" of customer cars. That would mean the VIP's and absolutly gotta have it types are starting to dimish somewhat, as the fall/winter appproaches and most buyers of the car as a toy or collectable are simply going to stare at them until spring in most parts of North America.

We may see another few weeks of high demand/pay any price in an effort to get one for a few weeks of look at me, however most area's have at least one or two now, and the first in town thinking has to be diminishing a little.

And has anybody else noticed that it seems to be a preponderance of verts that are still available? I wonder if the lack of stripes and that visible at a distance thing are having any effect on cars delivered to date?

 

Personally, I like the stripe delete, unless they are painted on. I've seen two, up close, with stripes and the front end around the bumper has more than one splice. It looked pretty "jagged" to me. As far as a " preponderande" of verts being available, that doesn't seem to be the case in my neck of the woods.

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Okay, here is an ebay auction, just ended:

 

http://cgi.ebay.com/ebaymotors/Ford-Mustan...036717380QQrdZ1

 

Appears to have been no reserve, many bids (including, however, the notorious Georgia you know whos), and it closes at over $60k. Seller appears to be in Oregon. I have no idea how cost of living there compares with NYC, LA, DC, etc. Would that make the price 65 or 70 k in those areas?

 

What does this say, if anything, about what a willing buyer is willing to pay a willing seller TODAY?

 

And please lets dispense with all the knee jerk rhetoric on either side of the "ADMs are evil" issue, a la "all ebay auctions are frauds," or, "you are just bitter because you can't afford it."

 

I am interested in thoughts on current market conditions.

 

:sos:

 

The last couple of weeks the actual sales have really dropped off. Interestingly, the ones that have sold are going for slightly more money. A few weeks ago most were 10-12 over and there were 3 that did not sell that had high bids of less than 10k over (7 and two 9s). Just looked today and a lot of bidding is still stopping in the 10 - 15k range. I don't know if it is that dealers are trying to set the reserves a little higher or that the 15-20k crowd is really thinning down.

 

At 50 per day being produced, I would think that the dealers would start to see more cars soon. When they do and when they sit there (because each one is going to want his 15k over), the price will fall. I think we will see 5k over as the norm by Christmas. I think they will sit there a while as the buyers that are waiting now will get tired of waiting and jump on 5 over. By April/May MSRP deals will start happening at the smaller dealerships and MSRP will be norm by June.

 

edit: ADMs are evil

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Lots of small dealers have not even got there 1 or 2 cars yet, and most have a big list. The biggest dealer in Vancouver, WA was getting 2 cars and now has been told he is only getting the one that he sold 2 weeks ago. I wonder how many dealers in the US there is ? any idea?

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I wonder how many dealers in the US there is ? any idea?

 

 

thousands.

 

I think you may not see too much further easing in the market until after Christmas. I don't know market cycles in the snow belts, but don't forget, much of the US experiences mild winters. And a Shelby "under" the tree would be nice for some (please, no wrapping around trees!).

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thousands.

 

I think you may not see too much further easing in the market until after Christmas. I don't know market cycles in the snow belts, but don't forget, much of the US experiences mild winters. And a Shelby "under" the tree would be nice for some (please, no wrapping around trees!).

 

Ratnacage: So lets say there is 3 thousand dealers, and only 2000 of them get the cars. 9000 cars made divided by 2000 dealers is 4.5 cars each. or in most cases; 1 or 2 or 3 for some and 6 or 7 for a few hundred. All of the suddon 9000 cars does not sound like very many. I may be wrong, but this is why I decided to bite the bullitt and pay the large 15K ADM and get the car ordered. :shrug:

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Ratnacage: So lets say there is 3 thousand dealers, and only 2000 of them get the cars. 9000 cars made divided by 2000 dealers is 4.5 cars each. or in most cases; 1 or 2 or 3 for some and 6 or 7 for a few hundred. All of the suddon 9000 cars does not sound like very many. I may be wrong, but this is why I decided to bite the bullitt and pay the large 15K ADM and get the car ordered. :shrug:

 

 

Well, people make a big deal out of paying or not paying ADM's. The bottom line is, and I've been saying this for a while, people (you) should pay whatever the car is worth to YOU.

 

Not to open old wounds, but my partner basically said that anyone that thought they had a deal at MSRP would never get the car, and as production finally ramped up, this came to be true as evidenced by numerous posts that confirmed this (I'm sure some got them at MSRP, but I'm willing to bet most "MSRP" deals were broken). We tripped the sh*t-latch on this board with that basic statement - that MSRP deals were literally DOA. We simply stated what we knew was going to happen. However, for the record, we never renegged on a deal and we never accepted offers for deposits.

 

The fact that you are at least willing to agree to the ADM essentially gaurantees you a car while others not willing to pay wait. However, since you have ordered the car, if by the time the car arrives the market has cooled down, you shouldn't have any problem renegotiating the price. If the market is still hot, then you'll still be one of the ones driving a Shelby instead of talking about it.

 

Anyway, about distribution and general availability, it's anyone's guess. Some say 9000, some question whether or not production delays will make that goal reachable. Just keep an eye out for your car.

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Well, people make a big deal out of paying or not paying ADM's. The bottom line is, and I've been saying this for a while, people (you) should pay whatever the car is worth to YOU.

 

Not to open old wounds, but my partner basically said that anyone that thought they had a deal at MSRP would never get the car, and as production finally ramped up, this came to be true as evidenced by numerous posts that confirmed this (I'm sure some got them at MSRP, but I'm willing to bet most "MSRP" deals were broken). We tripped the sh*t-latch on this board with that basic statement - that MSRP deals were literally DOA. We simply stated what we knew was going to happen. However, for the record, we never renegged on a deal and we never accepted offers for deposits.

 

The fact that you are at least willing to agree to the ADM essentially gaurantees you a car while others not willing to pay wait. However, since you have ordered the car, if by the time the car arrives the market has cooled down, you shouldn't have any problem renegotiating the price. If the market is still hot, then you'll still be one of the ones driving a Shelby instead of talking about it.

 

Anyway, about distribution and general availability, it's anyone's guess. Some say 9000, some question whether or not production delays will make that goal reachable. Just keep an eye out for your car.

 

Rat: I like the key words that you used in your post. Whats it worth to you and gaurenteed you get a car. The ADM does have some benifits! :o

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if by the time the car arrives the market has cooled down, you shouldn't have any problem renegotiating the price.

Rat, you're kidding, right? You're saying that if he signed an agreement for $15k over, but when the car finally comes in most others are selling at MSRP, then his dealer will give it to him for MSRP? No way can you get me to believe this. That dealer's stance will be "Your $5k deposit was non-refundable, so we'll keep your money and sell it to someone else at MSRP." In other words, that dealer is guaranteed to get whatever the going price is PLUS whatever deposit this person put down. Now I agree that this person could sacrifice their $5k deposit at that dealer and buy from another dealer for MSRP, but they'd still essentially be paying $5k ADM that way.

 

I'm sorry for calling you out on this one, but I think you're way off base unless I'm totally misunderstanding what you are saying. If so, please clarify or correct me.

 

Dave

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Rat, you're kidding, right? You're saying that if he signed an agreement for $15k over, but when the car finally comes in most others are selling at MSRP, then his dealer will give it to him for MSRP? No way can you get me to believe this. That dealer's stance will be "Your $5k deposit was non-refundable, so we'll keep your money and sell it to someone else at MSRP." In other words, that dealer is guaranteed to get whatever the going price is PLUS whatever deposit this person put down. Now I agree that this person could sacrifice their $5k deposit at that dealer and buy from another dealer for MSRP, but they'd still essentially be paying $5k ADM that way.

 

I'm sorry for calling you out on this one, but I think you're way off base unless I'm totally misunderstanding what you are saying. If so, please clarify or correct me.

 

Dave

 

 

 

Gotta go with Rat on this one, I had a verbal agreement to order with a 10K ADM or less when car arrived, now to be honest the dealer was "trying" to secure another allocation but with no promise..in the mean time Orf turned me on to his second vert that was due in late Oct. it was still avaliable and a deal was struck for 10K over..happy about the price...no way...do I have the means to pay it....Yes....bottom line is I can afford and I want it...and I may get hit by a bus tomm. so what the Hell :rockon:

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Rob, which dealer did you settle on for your car? There is a Portland dealer who will be getting a red coupe next week, and they are having a very difficult time finding a buyer at $20k over. This after bragging about selling their first one at $30k over, 2 months ago.

 

Ordered it from Ken the Fleet guy at the St.Helens Ford dealership for 15K over MSRP. Its a done deal, I am done shopping. Deposit and contract in place.

 

Rat: I signed a contract, and so did the dealer. We agreed on a price. We did not put a clause into the contract that the buyer can re-negotiate the price if the market cools down.

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Ordered it from Ken the Fleet guy at the St.Helens Ford dealership for 15K over MSRP. Its a done deal, I am done shopping. Deposit and contract in place.

 

Rat: I signed a contract, and so did the dealer. We agreed on a price. We did not put a clause into the contract that the buyer can re-negotiate the price if the market cools down.

 

 

 

You have a true garantee of a car (as long as they are alloted your car), verbal agreements mean nothing.

I've been trying to deal with many dealers and you cant get a true contract based on what the market is when it arrives? You have to set a price. Enjoy knowing you will get an 07. :party:

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You have a true garantee of a car (as long as they are alloted your car), verbal agreements mean nothing.

I've been trying to deal with many dealers and you cant get a true contract based on what the market is when it arrives? You have to set a price. Enjoy knowing you will get an 07. :party:

 

:rockon: Peace of mind knowing I will get my car is a good thing. Right before spring starts, I should have my car. Also I am also having some fun trying to figure out which color I want. The car is ordered. He went into the computer and showed me, and printed the sheet that shows it in the order bank.The dealer was alloted one. I have some time to tweak the order if I want. as I said in a different post, I learned here on this forum what the contract should say and get everything signed. The only reason I would not get my car is if they do not build it.

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So the ADM goes down and how many new buyers come into the market thinking, "Now you're talking?" More buyers bidding on the car...........ADM goes back up!

 

FR: You have a pretty good point to ponder :huh: . If all the buyers that are waiting for the price to fall start showing up in droves, you are right, the dealers will re-adjust the pricing.

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Rat, you're kidding, right...That dealer's stance will be "Your $5k deposit was non-refundable, so we'll keep your money and sell it to someone else at MSRP." ... please clarify or correct me.

 

 

Well, admittedly, I hadn't considered that angle. But, if a customer makes enough noise, the dealer will capitulate (word of the day).

 

 

So the ADM goes down and how many new buyers come into the market thinking, "Now you're talking?" More buyers bidding on the car...........ADM goes back up!

 

 

Check my theory in post#41 at "Shelby prices and Winter months"

 

We did not put a clause into the contract that the buyer can re-negotiate the price if the market cools down.

 

 

I'm not necessarily advocating that you do that, but it's an option. Personally, if I could afford it, it wouldn't bother me to pay whatever ADM I felt was worthwhile to me.

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Well, admittedly, I hadn't considered that angle. But, if a customer makes enough noise, the dealer will capitulate (word of the day).

Check my theory in post#41 at "Shelby prices and Winter months"

I'm not necessarily advocating that you do that, but it's an option. Personally, if I could afford it, it wouldn't bother me to pay whatever ADM I felt was worthwhile to me.

 

Rat: If I asked to put that kind of clause into the contract they would tell me to go punt, would'nt you? :headscratch:

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:rockon: Peace of mind knowing I will get my car is a good thing. Right before spring starts, I should have my car. Also I am also having some fun trying to figure out which color I want. The car is ordered. He went into the computer and showed me, and printed the sheet that shows it in the order bank.The dealer was alloted one. I have some time to tweak the order if I want. as I said in a different post, I learned here on this forum what the contract should say and get everything signed. The only reason I would not get my car is if they do not build it.

 

 

 

Did your dealer get the 3rd quarter build letter? Sounds like they are still pulling orders for the pre Christmas cars. Maybe you will get lucky .

 

:beerchug:

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Did your dealer get the 3rd quarter build letter? Sounds like they are still pulling orders for the pre Christmas cars. Maybe you will get lucky .

 

:beerchug:

 

I will ask about the letter.What is the jist of the letter?

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Rat: If I asked to put that kind of clause into the contract they would tell me to go punt, would'nt you? :headscratch:

 

 

Of course. I wasn't really trying to get too "wrapped around the axle" on this, just saying that when it comes to buying a car, you still have options up until you drive the car off the lot.

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Rat: In a earlier post on Five Oh B's thread, I asked him about the NW region. I learned from him that there are 5 states here in this region, and 147 dealers in those 5 states (OR,WA,ID,MT,AL). 5-O-B posted all the GT500's that are on the ground or getting off a train. The total was only 16. Why do you suppose there are so few cars in the NW region. This is of course fueling the ADM fees. I am sure some of our 147 dealers in our 5 states here in the Pacific NW are having to try to buy cars from other states to feed our demand. I guess I just do not understand where all these cars are going. I am told by the guys on this forum that Ford is cranking out 50 cars a day, but the supply is still lacking big time. I wonder how the supply is doing in the other regions?

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Rat: In a earlier post on Five Oh B's thread, I asked him about the NW region. I learned from him that there are 5 states here in this region, and 147 dealers in those 5 states (OR,WA,ID,MT,AL). 5-O-B posted all the GT500's that are on the ground or getting off a train. The total was only 16. Why do you suppose there are so few cars in the NW region. This is of course fueling the ADM fees. I am sure some of our 147 dealers in our 5 states here in the Pacific NW are having to try to buy cars from other states to feed our demand. I guess I just do not understand where all these cars are going. I am told by the guys on this forum that Ford is cranking out 50 cars a day, but the supply is still lacking big time. I wonder how the supply is doing in the other regions?

 

 

I count 34 in the SW region which is where we are. I'm not sure how many states comprise the region, but all 34 are in TX or OK (I think TX and OK are the only two in the SW region though). There's no telling why there seems to be a shortage, but even if Ford produces 9000 units, that's just not a huge number when compared to the number of people that want one. While I'm not going to feed customers lies about production in so far as I'm not going to commit to a customer on a certain qty of units being produced, I have reservations concerning Ford's ability to actually crank out 9000 of these things in the time alotted.

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I count 34 in the SW region which is where we are. I'm not sure how many states comprise the region, but all 34 are in TX or OK. There's no telling why there seems to be a shortage, but even if Ford produces 9000 units, that's just not a huge number when compared to the number of people that want one. While I'm not going to feed customers lies about production in so far as I'm not going to commit to a customer on a certain qty of units being produced, I have reservations concerning Ford's ability to actually crank out 9000 of these things in the time alotted.

 

So the Nw Region has 16 cars and the SW region has 34 cars. Thats 50 cars for sale in the NW and SW regions. Apparently that is how many cars is built in 1 day. Something is just not computing here. I realy doubt that there crankin out 250 cars a week (1000 a month). The numbers are not showing it. Any way of looking on the Ford computer to see how many cars are on the ground in the United States ?

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So the Nw Region has 16 cars and the SW region has 34 cars. Thats 50 cars for sale in the NW and SW regions. Apparently that is how many cars is built in 1 day. Something is just not computing here. I realy doubt that there crankin out 250 cars a week (1000 a month). The numbers are not showing it. Any way of looking on the Ford computer to see how many cars are on the ground in the United States ?

 

 

There are 339 coupes showing to be "on the ground" (meaning at or about to reach a dealer). It appears about 1/4 of these are "retail" orders meaning they were ordered by a customer (I might be wrong, but that's how I read it).

 

It's hard to say how many of the remaining 254 are actually available, since I'm sure many of those are presold. 339 also doesn't take into account units that have already been delivered. If we assume that double the amount showing has already been delivered (I'm completely pulling that figure out of my a**), then about 1017 have been produced over the past 3 months. That means they're on track to produce about 4100 cars for the model year. However, it's reasonable to assume that the rate of production will speed up as they get the bugs worked out of the process, but 9000 still seems a long way off.

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There are 339 coupes showing to be "on the ground" (meaning at or about to reach a dealer). It appears about 1/4 of these are "retail" orders meaning they were ordered by a customer (I might be wrong, but that's how I read it).

 

It's hard to say how many of the remaining 254 are actually available, since I'm sure many of those are presold. 339 also doesn't take into account units that have already been delivered. If we assume that double the amount showing has already been delivered (I'm completely pulling that figure out of my a**), then about 1017 have been produced over the past 3 months. That means they're on track to produce about 4100 cars for the model year. However, it's reasonable to assume that the rate of production will speed up as they get the bugs worked out of the process, but 9000 still seems a long way off.

 

Thanks for looking that information up. 254 cars in the united states possibly available - WOW, I would call that "slim pickins" at best. Lets hope they work out the bugs in the factory, so thay can produce more. With these kind of numbers of cars being produced, MSRP deals seem to be a pipe dream.

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OK let’s do some math.... Purchase a Shelby for 15K over MSRP. Its get stolen, or gets totaled, the insurance company pays 5K less that MSRP. :shift: That’s 20K gone. Ford will not finance 15K of ADM so the dealer must arrange financing. The banks will not lend you based on MSRP+ADM. Now you must take a personal loan and use the car and something else for collateral. Maybe your house, your boat or another car can be used as collateral. You can easily see why most people are reluctant to go over MSRP. If something happens to the car you get screwed :sos:

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OK let’s do some math.... Purchase a Shelby for 15K over MSRP. Its get stolen, or gets totaled, the insurance company pays 5K less that MSRP. :shift: That’s 20K gone. Ford will not finance 15K of ADM so the dealer must arrange financing. The banks will not lend you based on MSRP+ADM. Now you must take a personal loan and use the car and something else for collateral. Maybe your house, your boat or another car can be used as collateral. You can easily see why most people are reluctant to go over MSRP. If something happens to the car you get screwed :sos:

 

 

Exactly.

 

Also I feel that MSRP is more than a fair price for the car :)

 

If I do get into a GT500 it won't be for another year or so, then these things will be plentiful and reasonably priced. :bandance:

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OK let’s do some math.... Purchase a Shelby for 15K over MSRP. Its get stolen, or gets totaled, the insurance company pays 5K less that MSRP. :shift: That’s 20K gone. Ford will not finance 15K of ADM so the dealer must arrange financing. The banks will not lend you based on MSRP+ADM. Now you must take a personal loan and use the car and something else for collateral. Maybe your house, your boat or another car can be used as collateral. You can easily see why most people are reluctant to go over MSRP. If something happens to the car you get screwed :sos:

 

 

 

I dont believe the people paying adms are financing their adms.

 

As far as the insurance issue the company will pay fair market value, not just cut you 5k off of sticker.

 

Rob about the letter of build time, how did your dealer come up with the car arriving in the spring? I did not expect my car until next year but my order got pulled about 3 weeks ago :cheerleader: Point is if you are going to change your color you might want to have your order in the order bank just in case you got pulled in the next few weeks. The whole process is soo puzzling.

 

I also think their are alot more people wanting this car for 43k than we think.(but refuse to pay adm) Which will make many wait until this time next year or later for a car. I personally couldnt wait that long. I think 43k is affordable to many people in todays economy. But what do I know?

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