ratnacage Posted October 17, 2006 Report Share Posted October 17, 2006 I'm sorry, but this makes no sense to me. How can you calculate the mean price of a Shelby based on a single data point (your estimated peak price)? You cannot determine the mean or median of any data set with only one data point (unless there is only one data point in the set). It's not possible. I wonder whether you have substituted "MSRP" for "mean" in your equation, and your $49.5K estimate is really 2 Standard Deviations from the "mean" (where mean = MSRP in your example)??? If so, then obviously the mean price for a Shelby isn't MSRP at this point in time, and therefore your estimate is likely off. :wacko: well obviously without huge research resources at our disposal we must take substantial liberties with the little that we do know and make broad assumptions with what we speculate. In principle, 68's methods are sound, as he is attempting to calculate the average ADM and thus the average selling price, but I still disagree with the 0.283 figure. I believe the 0.717 figure should be left as-is. 0.717 should approximate the average (RMS) based on the bell-curve's peak (at this time assumed to be 23k over msrp). When calulated like this you wind up with the average selling price at about $59k which my gut says should be very, very close. ...certainly won't win any prizes in statistics, but it's at least better than just bitching back and forth about adm's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
5.4 Shelby Posted October 17, 2006 Report Share Posted October 17, 2006 I'm not sure that it would have more, didn't the KR's of old actually have less horsepower since they dropped the dual fours for a single. The KR (assuming there is) might be nothing more than a couple tweaks of the exterior package. The exodus you describe may not be so dramatic and you may not see the huge price drop. I sold my SVT 03 Terminator last year for just about what I paid for it. I have very good luck with all of the SVT products. In fact I was offered 18,500 for my 99 Lightning about 6 months ago, decided to keep it. So hype or not, me thinks the price of Shelbys is not going to go in the toilet any time soon. My humble opinion, asbestos suit on, fire extinguisher handy, got yard sprinklers going, OK, I'm ready IF Ford makes a KR, it will be a Cobra R level car. It will be priced much higher and have a much higher, Club Racer, level of performance. The car will be produced more like the 300 range for only one year rather than 10,000+/year for 3 years. It would make the collectibility of the GT500 go in the toilet and, as Owen says, bring Gt500s out of the woodwork for deals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dakota Posted October 17, 2006 Report Share Posted October 17, 2006 I think there are two sides of the fence. If you are someone who has a Shelby GT500, then you probably want the prices to stay high so you don't realize you wasted alot of money on ADM. If you don't have a Shelby GT500, but want to buy one at a reasonable price, you are probably thinking the prices will come down to earth close to MSRP as time goes on. If you watch eBay, you will see many cars that are not selling because of high reserves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alloy Dave Posted October 17, 2006 Report Share Posted October 17, 2006 All I have to say is....that in the past a thread like this would have resulted in a lot of arguments, name calling, and other negativity. It seems for the past month or so that this forum is much more friendly...and I like that. I think most of us know why that is....hope it stays that way. Which word do you see in the picture below? Dave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
5.4 Shelby Posted October 17, 2006 Report Share Posted October 17, 2006 All I have to say is....that in the past a thread like this would have resulted in a lot of arguments, name calling, and other negativity. It seems for the past month or so that this forum is much more friendly...and I like that. I think most of us know why that is....hope it stays that way. Which word do you see in the picture below? Dave Did he get banned or something? It is nice to have civil disagreements about it. I think Dakota summed it up very well. 1/2 of us are trying to suppress the hype and keep prices down and the other half are hoping they stay up to keep the value of their car up and justify the price they paid for it. I like keeping the threads like this going to give the public a chance to think about their decision to buy at ADM or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CobraCrazy Posted October 17, 2006 Report Share Posted October 17, 2006 All I have to say is....that in the past a thread like this would have resulted in a lot of arguments, name calling, and other negativity. It seems for the past month or so that this forum is much more friendly...and I like that. I think most of us know why that is....hope it stays that way. Which word do you see in the picture below? Dave +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grabber Posted October 17, 2006 Report Share Posted October 17, 2006 Did he get banned or something? It is nice to have civil disagreements about it. I think Dakota summed it up very well. 1/2 of us are trying to suppress the hype and keep prices down and the other half are hoping they stay up to keep the value of their car up and justify the price they paid for it. I like keeping the threads like this going to give the public a chance to think about their decision to buy at ADM or not. You have some very good points. Everyone has different circumstances. I agree with you that education for our kids is very importand, as well as other basics, not to mention getting ready for, and having a good retirement plan. One has got to take care of the priorities first. Once that is done, one can enduldge in hobbies, toys, travell, and other things that make our lives enjoyable and fun. I understand that you feel that myself and others are "SUCKERS" because we paid a ADM that is unnacceptable to you. You have the right to that opinion, and I will not debate it.Sometimes we will have to agree to disagree, and that's OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
5.4 Shelby Posted October 17, 2006 Report Share Posted October 17, 2006 You have some very good points. Everyone has different circumstances. I agree with you that education for our kids is very importand, as well as other basics, not to mention getting ready for, and having a good retirement plan. One has got to take care of the priorities first. Once that is done, one can enduldge in hobbies, toys, travell, and other things that make our lives enjoyable and fun. I understand that you feel that myself and others are "SUCKERS" because we paid a ADM that is unnacceptable to you. You have the right to that opinion, and I will not debate it.Sometimes we will have to agree to disagree, and that's OK. I hope you don't think it is anything personal. It isn't. As I said above, I keep harping on it to keep the topic current. Once the prices come down, we'll all be friends that have really nice GT500s. :beerchug: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lawdude Posted October 17, 2006 Report Share Posted October 17, 2006 Homo sapiens cannot help but try to predict human behavior with an equation. Simple equations are much less precise than more complex. However, I've seen three-block-long econometric equations that come up short. All I know is that if mine's bigger than yours, I win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grabber Posted October 17, 2006 Report Share Posted October 17, 2006 : I hope you don't think it is anything personal. It isn't. As I said above, I keep harping on it to keep the topic current. Once the prices come down, we'll all be friends that have really nice GT500s. :beerchug: It's all good here dude. Soon we will all have our cars and enjoying them. Homo sapiens cannot help but try to predict human behavior with an equation. Simple equations are much less precise than more complex. However, I've seen three-block-long econometric equations that come up short. All I know is that if mine's bigger than yours, I win. The "H" word is not allowed here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
68fastback Posted October 17, 2006 Report Share Posted October 17, 2006 I'm sorry, but this makes no sense to me. How can you calculate the mean price of a Shelby based on a single data point (your estimated peak price)? You cannot determine the mean or median of any data set with only one data point (unless there is only one data point in the set). It's not possible. I wonder whether you have substituted "MSRP" for "mean" in your equation, and your $49.5K estimate is really 2 Standard Deviations from the "mean" (where mean = MSRP in your example)??? If so, then obviously the mean price for a Shelby isn't MSRP at this point in time, and therefore your estimate is likely off. :wacko: Hey, Jolly Roger. I hear ya ...but I was just trying to estimate the weighted average (genuine market value?) using just ADMs for GT500s and the assumption that they approximately fall in a normal bell-curve distribution. I agree that one data point is usually totally useless, but with the assumption of a bell-curve distribution (if valid), only the peak is needed to the find Y-axis equivalent of area under the bell-curve (.717 of peak in a normal bell distrib). Now, if it's truly a normal bell-curve (half-phase sinusoid), the weighted average of the member values under the curve should be approximately the [reciprocal of .717] x peak (or .283peak) since, by definition, there are always more-and-more lower-and-lower values below the peak of a bell-curve and the actual quantity and values of those points aren't needed as long as there is a sufficient number of points for reasonable smoothing (and the distrib follows a bell-curve shape). In the artificial distribution example I used, there are only 10 values and the algorithm still yielded results very close to the actual calculated weighted average. Unfortunately we don't know if/how-close ADMs fall in a normal bell-curve distribution, let alone any statistically representative sampling of all sales in any given period (which would be needed to do an actual calculation, not an approximation). That's why I was trying the bell-curve approach. -Dan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KMCBOSS Posted October 18, 2006 Report Share Posted October 18, 2006 IF Ford makes a KR, it will be a Cobra R level car. It will be priced much higher and have a much higher, Club Racer, level of performance. The car will be produced more like the 300 range for only one year rather than 10,000+/year for 3 years. It would make the collectibility of the GT500 go in the toilet and, as Owen says, bring Gt500s out of the woodwork for deals. IF...IF...IF You can't live life on what if - sometimes you just have to grab the bull by the horns and make the commitment. Toyota might own Ford and GM before ADMs go away and start puting 4 pops in the Shelby! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grabber Posted October 18, 2006 Report Share Posted October 18, 2006 IF...IF...IF You can't live life on what if - sometimes you just have to grab the bull by the horns and make the commitment. Toyota might own Ford and GM before ADMs go away and start puting 4 pops in the Shelby! +1. Many think like you do. Right on. Enjoy life> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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