Shelby prices and Winter months

[5.4 Shelby]

Thanks for the poke Your last sentence is condensending, but thank you anyway for giving me permission to buy a GT500 !

 

I wasn't necessarily targeting you. Every time someone pays the ADM, the ADM lives another day. I understand why someone would pay it. You have the money, you don't want to wait for the car, might as well spend it. I have the money, I just choose not to waste it by paying more than the car was intended to be. I'd rather use that money to retire earlier, pay for one of my kids college or remodel the garage that the car will be kept in.

 

My point is, it is a waste. I hate to see people suckered into paying it. The reason we have this board and frequent it is to educate ourselves about the car and buying one (it is also here to express out opinions). I would think that anyone reading these boards would have had enough exposure to understand that the car will come down to normal price. If you choose not to wait (and, IMHO, needlessly spend too much money for the car), then go ahead and pay ADM.

 

The reason I have an opinion on your purchase is because it affects me and everyone else who is waiting on the price to come down. The reason I am posting about it is because I hope to save others from making the same mistake while shortening my wait for my car (which has been since 2003).

 

edit: :beerchug:

[ColoCobra]

If you have the money and like the car you buy it. It's your money do what you want with . You made it. Whose business is it what you do with it. I LOVE my Shelby. I won't be selling it any time soon, so I won't worry about Blue Book. I won't be buying an additional GT 500 like some of the guys on this site, but good for the ones who do. I understand the frustration of the people who are waiting for prices to come down, but they may not, at least for a while. It seems like there are many willing buyers out there who have the money and can't wait to spend it on the hottest pony car to ever come down the road.

[5.4 Shelby]

the hottest pony car to ever come down the road.

 

Until the next one comes along.

 

I watched this same thing happen with the Terms. They were the hottest Mustang ever. They commanded ADMs. They came down to the point where they were rebated.

 

The only difference is this one says Shelby on the back. How does that make Ford not build as many as they can sell? We all know they will. Almost all of us know they will come down. The ones who don't are being suckered. I'm just trying to keep that from happening. Seriously, check back in a year and see where the prices are. See how good you feel about spending that ADM then. Just ask the guys that did it for the Terms and/or Mach 1s. I bet they aren't doing it for this one.

 

I called SVT a few weeks ago about the production plans. They confirmed 8-10k/year for AT LEAST 2 years.

 

While having that conversation, I mentioned that I thought the ADMs would go away by next Summer. The guy I was talking to said "we would expect the same thing"

 

I won't be selling it any time soon, so I won't worry about Blue Book.

Are you going to worry about it if it gets stolen or totaled in a crash. How much of that ADM is your insurance company going to pay?

[BoneDoc]

finally.... a fresh topic!

 

my opinion:

 

there are enough guys/gals still waiting around for one of these that ADM's will continue into the beginning of the 2008 run.

 

remember... a significant number of baby boomers will want these cars based on the "nostalgia" factor.... and they have money to spend.

 

rememeber the "golden rule"

 

The one with the gold makes the rules!

 

JMHO

[Grabber]

So the Thread has got off track a little. Back to prices during the winter months. We could call the next 6 months winter months. Then its basically almost spring. Lots of the dealers have recieved there 1st round of cars (A whoppin 3-5 for a few) Some of thes dealers are going to get a few more, and they are already spoken for. Deposits on the remaining cars have locked them in with a pre determined ADM. Then Spring and Summer is here, and the demand to buy this car and enjoy it in the good weather hits. There will not be enough cars for these folks. Many will turn to the Shelby GT or a GT. Some will look at the Dodge Challenger. I do think that the ADM's will go down a little but availability will remain somewhat slim. Time will tell. I do not want to waite.

[Fordrules]

100,000 Mustangs are sold per year, I believe I read. If I have a chance to make it a '07 Shelby GT 500 (only 9,000-10,000 being produced), by paying more, I will. This car is not dropping in price. It is going to be a trophy car for any age. It will draw a bid everytime.

[68fastback]

Possibly the internet has also introduced another dimention in this ADM situation. There's essentially two GT500 markets, IMO, the more global internet market and more regional/local markets.

 

I won't pay more than MSRP (less, actually) but I've now talked (face to face) to seven dealers in three states (all in rural areas of the northeast) and have yet to find one who has sold a GT500 for more than $5K over MSRP. The largest of the rural dealers seem to be allocated around 8 units and have already received approximately 4. The smallest dealers (allocated only 1 or 2) seem to either have low MSRP deals locked-up or have already agreed to sell their unit(s) to a larger 'internet' dealer.

 

I'm guessing the big ADMs are, aside from the 'gouging' internet dealers (yes, that's my opinion because they attempt to drive the price higher than actual market price by creating a shadow market) in areas with more population [and/or more affluent population]. Pefectly legal and enterprising but not anyone I would ever do business with under any circumstances, regardless of actual price.

 

I think whenever there are two 'markets' existing in parallel for similar goods or services the inflated market, which is based more on perception than fact, is prone to more rapid correction. Witness the NASDAQ vs the DOW or S&P500. The NASDAQ lost far more value %-wise in 2001 than the other two because the basis of the NASDAQ (the infamous "dot-com" bubble) was built on me-too and herd-mentality and not on the fundamental business merit (you, know things like revenue and cash flow ;-) Let's face it, if the GT500 fundamental value was $65K the MSRP would reflect that - it isn't and it doesn't. The ADMs are based on gotta-have and fear of not-getting. Nothing wrong with that, just not a reflection of durable market value -- so will be prone to rapid correction as satiation occurs.

 

I think the very small dealers are very aware that there are two markets and are insulating themselves from risk by either asking modest mark-ups of loyal customers (and thereby avoiding the potential risk of relationship damage from loyal long-term customers) OR are deciding to do a dealer transfer and take thier ADM without the hassle (or the risk of not being able to find a local customer willing to pay a big ADM without risking relationship damage to many) -- this is a real and recurrent theme in small dealers I've talked to -- they don't want to risk a customer relationship by hearing "you want how much?" from a long time customer which most ALL of their customers are by definition. Small dealers also view the GT500 as a serious liability on their lot. They typically have no way to protect the car except put it in their small (one or two car) showroom where they still have the "gawker problem" (two dealers told me that) and small dealers remember the Ford GT as a "nightmare" (again: gawkers, protection/damamge, etc).

 

So, given that Ford has publically stated they will 'make the car for at least two years'... told the April magazine testers 'it will be made for three years'... will make them 'until everyone who wants one has one'... will make them 'at a rate of 10% of mustang production' (dependent, of course, on hard-part supply [Tremec]), I think Ford will keep makig these cars until it reaches the point that dealers tell them they don't want any more -- and that doesn't usually occur until they have to sell them for down around $500 over invoice -- or the carrying tipping point where dealer finance holding costs put invoice-plus$ net profits at risk.

 

I don't think the GT500 is actually a limited production car at all, i.e. making only "NN" and that's it. It's production RATE is limited by CAFE nums, hard-parts and shared-line logistics considerations, but nowhere have I seen Ford say they will only make "NN" over "YY" years (like the Ford GT).

 

My price is $37-38K on this car, no more. As much as I'd love one, I will never violate my beliefs for gratification. There'll be other killer mustangs and a lighter curve-carver might suit me better. But everyone has their own reasons and no one should have to feel their decidion needs to be justified to anyone else (except maybe wifey? ;-) and I can certaily respect those who decide to pay a large ADM -- but I also realize that that is why there are large ADMs ;-)

 

Remember the '01 Cobra? Two years of pent-up demand (due to the screwed-up '99 Cobra intake fiasco) and 320 verieifed SAE HP drove ADMs up to $15K at one point in large markets -- by the end of production you could get one for $350 over invoice with no transfer charge and discounted extended warranties!

 

When this "market" does finaly correct on the GT500 I think it will be no impact to the small dealer, but can potentially damage the big internet 'black-hole' dealers who can get caught will many deals in-flight. Ironically, I suspect they'll just not honor their transfer deals witht the small dealers (who will typically get their allocations later) just like some attempt to reneg on agreed deals with the public.

 

Of the rural dealers I spoke to, three were VERY small (one or two car showrooms and allocated only one GT500) and two of those three will transfer their single unit to a big-city 'internet' dealer. When/if those deals colapse along with the ADMs late in the production cycle, that small dealer might just be a great place to pick up a bargain-priced GT500

 

Having said all that, I'm waiting to see what the Bullitt (tape and paint?), Mach(?) and Boss (oh, yes, please, please!!!) shape up like. The GT500 will still be in production for some time, so might as well play the dealers own game on them and wait 'em out.

 

Remember, the best poker face wins, and while some dealers are far better at milking customers as opposed to relationship management, those are the dealers who will flinch first when the correction happens -- they have no choice because they have the most (transfer ADM+) equity in the game.

 

At least that's my $.10

[5.4 Shelby]

Good post 68 and well worth $.10.

 

I think one thing that is driving this craze is the perception that all these dealer's allotment is sold out. Keep in mind that they are not sold until they are sold. List or not, deposit or not, the car is not here and, therefore, not sold. Nearly everyone is on multiple lists. So, the dealers all feel that their list is covered and telling the customers that. I know a guy who had a deposit for a car, got tired of waiting and bought one elsewhere. He got his deposit back. That dealer has again sold the car with deposit and again, the guy backed out. He got tired of waiting and bought a Hummer. Car "sold" again, but, still is not here.

 

Additionally, that is only the initial allotment, there will be more cars made and more allotment awarded (share of nation cars). I don't remember how many of each dealer there is, but the total allotment does not add up to 10,000 cars. I think there were 300ish SVT, 600ish SVTfocus, 4000 total dealers and I don't know how many PA dealers. Also, 300ish powerlease cars.

 

so, 4000 dealers, 600 SVT cars, 600 focus cars, 300 powerlease cars and even if there are 1000 PA dealers that only adds up to 6500 cars. 3500 more at current manuf rate.

 

Ford is making 50/day. Not counting any downtime, that gives Ford the ability to make 13,000 cars in 12 months (50cars x 5days x 52 weeks).

 

Then we have (likely) 2 more years of that.

 

I'm not trying to bash ADM payers. I'm trying to talk more out of doing it.

 

Bonedoc, I realize it had been beaten to death. That is why I have quieted down about it. I think it needs to be brought up occasionally to give new readers of the site the ability to think about their decision first. Then, if they decide to pay ADM, they have at least made an educated decision.

 

I am a little more vocal about it because I was one of the ones that had an MSRP deal yanked away by an ADM payer. Nothing personal.

 

Good night guys. Congrats to those that have their cars. Peace.

[Grabber]

Good post 68 and well worth $.10.

 

I think one thing that is driving this craze is the perception that all these dealer's allotment is sold out. Keep in mind that they are not sold until they are sold. List or not, deposit or not, the car is not here and, therefore, not sold. Nearly everyone is on multiple lists. So, the dealers all feel that their list is covered and telling the customers that. I know a guy who had a deposit for a car, got tired of waiting and bought one elsewhere. He got his deposit back. That dealer has again sold the car with deposit and again, the guy backed out. He got tired of waiting and bought a Hummer. Car "sold" again, but, still is not here.

 

Additionally, that is only the initial allotment, there will be more cars made and more allotment awarded (share of nation cars). I don't remember how many of each dealer there is, but the total allotment does not add up to 10,000 cars. I think there were 300ish SVT, 600ish SVTfocus, 4000 total dealers and I don't know how many PA dealers. Also, 300ish powerlease cars.

 

so, 4000 dealers, 600 SVT cars, 600 focus cars, 300 powerlease cars and even if there are 1000 PA dealers that only adds up to 6500 cars. 3500 more at current manuf rate.

 

Ford is making 50/day. Not counting any downtime, that gives Ford the ability to make 13,000 cars in 12 months (50cars x 5days x 52 weeks).

 

Then we have (likely) 2 more years of that.

 

I'm not trying to bash ADM payers. I'm trying to talk more out of doing it.

 

Bonedoc, I realize it had been beaten to death. That is why I have quieted down about it. I think it needs to be brought up occasionally to give new readers of the site the ability to think about their decision first. Then, if they decide to pay ADM, they have at least made an educated decision.

 

I am a little more vocal about it because I was one of the ones that had an MSRP deal yanked away by an ADM payer. Nothing personal.

 

Good night guys. Congrats to those that have their cars. Peace.

 

Hi 5.4: One of the things that I learned here, is to get a rock solid contract due to folks loosing out on there cars. Even know I am paying 15k ADM, I insisted on a solid contract. The standard "MOTOR VEHICLE PURCHASE AGREEMENT" has on it in big bold red letters "ALL DEPOSITS ON NEW VEHICLE ORDERS ARE NON-REFUNDABLE EARNEST MONIES" . Serious buyers have been plunking down 10K deposits. I put down 5K, but still that is a chunk of change. If a person gets tired of waiting, He can't get his money back just because he wants to buy from someone else because that is contrary to what the contract says. There is a area on the contracts where you can add verbage like " DEPOSIT REFUNDABLE IF VEHICLE NOT BUILT". Names on lists with no contract and no money down to prove you are a serious buyer don't hold up, or lets just call that a crap shoot. The dealers I spoke to that sold there cars ahead of time all had big deposits down and contracts. The lists are for the unknown, like " if we get another one, we will call you". I hope they make enough cars for everyone, but I know that the plant has shut downs and vacation breaks, and sometimes stuff just brakes and they loose a few days here and there. So the math you did on car production will be less. I feel bad that you got the shaft on your deal. Verbals in todays world are not worth the hot air that speaks them most of the time. I hope another deal comes your way soon and you can get the car you want.

[ratnacage]

Rat: Just as I suspected, your dealers cars are gone for the year. So your searching for another dealers car, and they know they have a hot commodity so they stick a ADM on it and you guys get the car and then stick a finders ADM onto their ADM and now all the sudden the car is 66K. SHELBY GT500'S will not be just sitting around in dealers lots for MSRP anytime soon in my opinion, at least not here in the Pacific NW. Just my 7 cents. EDit: With a ADM, I charge 12 cents.

 

 

12 cents??!! That's over 500% mark-up over an opinion's MSRP of 2 cents!! I demand that you supply me your opinion at 2 cents - in fact I can get another opinion for under 2 cents if I look hard enough!

 

But seriously, the only flaw in your opinion is that you are basing the $66k price on serial ADM's. This is actually the opposite of what's happening. We start with the current environment that supports a $66k+/- selling price. With that in mind, we try to find dealers willing to unload a GT500 for enough under that figure to cover transport and a reasonable margin. In other words, it's not the dealer to dealer ADM that is setting the market at $66k, but rather it's the market's $66k that is determining what we are willing to aquire one for. The consumer has set the ADM where it is, and that in turn has determined what dealers are willing to pay each other for the car, not the other way around. If we were to subscribe to your theory, then we could safely pay another dealer, say, $75k for the car and then add our ADM of another $10k - we should be able to sell that car for $85k. But, the consumer has put the price point below that, so this GT500 would in fact not sell (not likely anyway).

 

Now, I don't know what our actual allocation is, however lets look at the market a little differently:

 

This is all hypothetical, and I freely admit that my theory is somewhat self serving, but I think it works in principle:

 

Assumption: Unlike people on this board, most are not willing or don't have the time or interest in scouring the country to find the handful of dealers willing to unload there GT500's at or near MSRP (you guys are hard-core, most aren't)

 

In Houston, there are about 40 Ford dealerships. Let's assume that 10 are majors with four allocations and the rest have two. That means that the Houston market is allocated 100 GT500's. The economy in Houston is the hottest it's been in 30 years and consequently the demand for GT500's is far in excess of 100 units. The selling price is a direct result of X number of people vying for 100 units. Now you have some dealers, like us, going around getting additional vehicles from OTHER markets and bringing them in to the Houston market. So now instead of X vs 100, you now have X vs 100+1, 100+2,... etc. Economics tells us that increasing suppy in the face of constant demand causes prices to fall. It is also true that a lower price may increase demand, but only because the product becomes accessible to more people, thus the increased supply has the effect of establishing a new, but lower selling price.

 

What's happened is you have GT500's scattered all over the country. Some markets' demand is greater than allocation and some have less relative demand for their allocation. Market forces allow dealers in higher demand markets to make additional GT500's available to their respective markets. The irony is that the act of dealers buying from each other has the effect of benefiting the market by more efficiently distributing supply to balance local demand.

 

..now, someone give me my Pony PhD.

[Gerry Chase 1128]

If we only had crystal balls............

 

It's a good thing we don't or there would be much less to discuss. However, when is the last time a mustang had this much pre-production hype, 500hp, Shelby badging, great styling, on the cover of many major car mags with numerous articles, Barrett Jackson sale, etc. I feel it's a stretch to predict this model's future based on the previous models' market trends. We'll find out soon enough, and I'm sure someone will be able to do a comparitive analysis. Then one group can say they were right.

 

In the end, I will have my GT500 and the smile it produces will be much more satisfying than being correct in any predictions about the future market of this vehicle.

[5.4 Shelby]

The consumer has set the ADM where it is, and that in turn has determined what dealers are willing to pay each other for the car, not the other way around.

Rob, thank you for your encouragement. I am confident that I will get one eventually. My anxiety stems more from when than if. Rat's statement, as quoted above, is why I am even discussing this opinion. The consumer's willingness to pay it is why it exists and where it is set (although I think the dealers set the mark in the first place). Just as the consumers that are willing to pay 20 were weeded out over a month ago, the 15s will be gone soon. 10s wil have their day, then 5s, then MSRP. Eventually the under sticker guys will get cars. It is a matter of when, not so much if. The under sticker guys will likely have a long wait. Maybe even until the next latest and greatest comes along. Once that is announced, the Shelby market will falter just like the Terminator market did when the S197 body style was announced (we didn't even know it was going to be a Shelby back then).

 

I don't agree about the deposit issue. I assure you that the majority of the deposits are refundable. You might have made yours non-refundable, but most do not do that. My point is the car is not sold out. IF it were, there would not be a bunch of cars on ebay all the time. The majority of dealers around me have not sold their cars yet as they are waiting for the big pop once they get the cars.

 

I realize it won't be 13,000 cars. 11 or even 12 would not surprise me in the least. Ford will overproduce this car if they can.

 

Back to topic, the winter months will slow down interest in the snow and ice climates. IT won't stop sales, but, will slow them. This should allow Ford to catch up a little on production and drive prices a little lower. Availabilty of the Shelby GT will pull sales away from the GT500. OF course, the ADM monster will show up on those as well. GM and Chrysler will have big announcements and even products to show the public at the Detroit Auto show. This will also slow the GT500 fever. I think this will soften the market enough for us to see MSRP by late Spring/early Summer. That is when 5.4 Shelby will finally have his car. :bandance:

 

Rat, thank you, as always, for your car salesman's perspective. IT is nice to have guys like you on the board.

 

If we only had crystal balls............

 

It's a good thing we don't or there would be much less to discuss. However, when is the last time a mustang had this much pre-production hype, 500hp, Shelby badging, great styling, on the cover of many major car mags with numerous articles, Barrett Jackson sale, etc. I feel it's a stretch to predict this model's future based on the previous models' market trends. We'll find out soon enough, and I'm sure someone will be able to do a comparitive analysis. Then one group can say they were right.

 

In the end, I will have my GT500 and the smile it produces will be much more satisfying than being correct in any predictions about the future market of this vehicle.

 

The difference has already been shown. Terms had lower ADMs and they died faster. Trust me guys, all ADMs die. They always have and they always will. The only cars that can sustain those are the super rare (like 200 or so produced) cars. Even the 2000 Cobra R lost its ADM eventually. You still see them for sale at dealerships as new cars now and then. Nobody was willing to pay the ADM, now they are struggling to get Sticker for them.

[jcthorne]

Are you going to worry about it if it gets stolen or totaled in a crash. How much of that ADM is your insurance company going to pay?

 

 

 

Actually, no I will not worry about it. The insurance will pay actual cash value of the vehicle at time of loss. Currently the KBB used value is well above MSRP. The insurance will pay the current value of the car, if current demand shows that the cost is $48k then that is what they will pay, regardless of the $43k MSRP. This is not the first car that appreciated in value when driven off the lot. It will not hold that value indefinatly but thats where it is now.

[Grabber]

12 cents??!! That's over 500% mark-up over an opinion's MSRP of 2 cents!! I demand that you supply me your opinion at 2 cents - in fact I can get another opinion for under 2 cents if I look hard enough!

 

But seriously, the only flaw in your opinion is that you are basing the $66k price on serial ADM's. This is actually the opposite of what's happening. We start with the current environment that supports a $66k+/- selling price. With that in mind, we try to find dealers willing to unload a GT500 for enough under that figure to cover transport and a reasonable margin. In other words, it's not the dealer to dealer ADM that is setting the market at $66k, but rather it's the market's $66k that is determining what we are willing to aquire one for. The consumer has set the ADM where it is, and that in turn has determined what dealers are willing to pay each other for the car, not the other way around. If we were to subscribe to your theory, then we could safely pay another dealer, say, $75k for the car and then add our ADM of another $10k - we should be able to sell that car for $85k. But, the consumer has put the price point below that, so this GT500 would in fact not sell (not likely anyway).

 

Now, I don't know what our actual allocation is, however lets look at the market a little differently:

 

This is all hypothetical, and I freely admit that my theory is somewhat self serving, but I think it works in principle:

 

Assumption: Unlike people on this board, most are not willing or don't have the time or interest in scouring the country to find the handful of dealers willing to unload there GT500's at or near MSRP (you guys are hard-core, most aren't)

 

In Houston, there are about 40 Ford dealerships. Let's assume that 10 are majors with four allocations and the rest have two. That means that the Houston market is allocated 100 GT500's. The economy in Houston is the hottest it's been in 30 years and consequently the demand for GT500's is far in excess of 100 units. The selling price is a direct result of X number of people vying for 100 units. Now you have some dealers, like us, going around getting additional vehicles from OTHER markets and bringing them in to the Houston market. So now instead of X vs 100, you now have X vs 100+1, 100+2,... etc. Economics tells us that increasing suppy in the face of constant demand causes prices to fall. It is also true that a lower price may increase demand, but only because the product becomes accessible to more people, thus the increased supply has the effect of establishing a new, but lower selling price.

 

What's happened is you have GT500's scattered all over the country. Some markets' demand is greater than allocation and some have less relative demand for their allocation. Market forces allow dealers in higher demand markets to make additional GT500's available to their respective markets. The irony is that the act of dealers buying from each other has the effect of benefiting the market by more efficiently distributing supply to balance local demand.

 

..now, someone give me my Pony PhD.

 

Rat: The 12 cents that I charged you for my opinion included fees for research of others opinions in other states and market rate adjustment for the low supply of opinions in my local area. Tax is included I could probally go down to 11 cents if Five Oh Be would give another opinion since he is from this area. (I do value his opinions - no flame intended)

 

Seriously though, I was not bashing the 66K ADM theory, even know it might of sounded like it. If your state like others is out of cars, I understand that calling around and searching for other dealers cars and getting them shipped to your state to sell to a customer gets these cars into the hands of some buyers that otherwise would not get one. The price for that service is being paid by consumers who want the car. By the way you can not get your Pony PHD until the 2 year model run is completed. Then we will see if you passed the course

[carnut]

Cars cost what they cost. This is a discounted opinion worth 1 cent, US funds only.

[Grabber]

Cars cost what they cost. This is a discounted opinion worth 1 cent, US funds only.

 

Thats a great deal. Thanks.

[68fastback]

I agree with Rat's logic with some reservations. The $66K is NOT the market price in Houston. It's probably closer to the current national peak price because these cars are being sold on the internet ( a national market). The Houston price may be close to that peak (because Houston is flying high as much as any other thriving area) and, if it is, is by far the exception as far as the nation as a whole goes.

 

If we assume for a moment that in a national market (internet sale) the $66K is a current peak, than the weighted avarage will be the MSRP +((inverse of .717) x (market peak - MSRP)). .717 is the area under a bell curve ralative to the total X-Y (rectalinear) area of the space the curve occupies (assumes the bell curve is a segment of a sine-wave (i.e. a parabola -- they almost always are approximately so). Therefore the true weighted average market value of the car is likely much closer to:

 

MSRP + +((inverse of .717) x (market peak - MSRP)) =

 

$43K + (.283 x ($66K - $43K)) =

 

$43K + (.283 x $23K)

 

$43K + $6.5K = $49.5K

 

Let me explain what I mean by weighted average (because it may actually be the "mean" or "median"). If there are 10 cars total available for sale this month and MSRP is 10K, and 4 sell for 10K, 3 sell for 11K 2 sell for 13K and 1 sells for 16K (present national peak), the average is $13K, but the weighted average (mean?? median??) is (4x10 + 3x11 + 2x13 + 1x16) / 10 = 11.5K

 

If you apply the earlier formula to the simulated distribution (just above), you'll see the formula gives a very close approximation ($11.69K) which closely resembles the $11.5K actual calculation of the simulated bell-curve.

 

So, if you take all sales of GT500s closing in the last 30days (arbitrary period), the weighted average that people are paying is likely just under $50K.

 

This is why I said in an earlier post that the internet dealers need to be cautious when the prices start to seriously trend down (not now). Because they are the keepers of the rolling national peak price: they won't 'see' the smoothed (parabolic) downturn. Instead, they will see what looks like the beginning of a smooth downturn but what will actually more of a 'cliff'. Fortunately for them, it will take time for a sense of the true weighted average price to get 'around,' and so they will likely be able to still find buyers (for a while after the true downturn) who are ignorant of the trending and, if lucky, will be able to move some/all severaly overinvested (relative to the true market weighted average) remaining units.

 

However, and more plausibly, internet dealers will not recognize the 'cliff' from the 'parabola' and can easily get caught offguard with some or all overinvested units. Of course, on average, they will have optimized revenue to that point and possibly losing a little money on a few (if they were paid for) would be tolerable. However, they can, more likely, just reneg on in-flight transfer deals with the smaller (late-to-get-allocated) dealers, thereby pushing-back the risk of potentially overinvested units that have not yet been transferred.

 

Since the smaller dealers generally are not pushing for such large ADMs anyway (for the reasons in my earlier post) they can sell at most any price betw invoice and MSRP+ and make a modest profit, so they are not at risk of getting burned. But the 'black-hole' internet dealers can quickly get caught on the losing end of double/multi-ADM transfer cars if the transfers are occuring in advance of an actuall customer order (real estate equivalent of build-on-spec).

 

So, if you want a good price on a GT500, look for very small dealers who plan to transfer their unit to a big internet dealer (most of the few I've talked to plan to do that rather than risk bad PR with long term customers) and wait for the market to change.

 

I've asked (face to face) several small dealers (who plan to transfer their unit out) if they have a back-up list if they in the above eventuallity. None did, but all were willing to take my name in the "unlikely event" their deal falls through. After all, what do they have to lose?

 

I'll decided to just wait for MSRP/below and see what else Ford serves up over the next year or two [or three], but those not fond of waiting ;-) might be able to be the backup list of a small rural dealer who plans to transfer their one [late-production] unit out.

[ratnacage]

(rectalinear)

 

MSRP + +((inverse of .717) x (market peak - MSRP)) =

 

 

 

First of all, I can't believe you said "Rectal in ear" - what is that exactly?

 

Without disputing any of your assumptions, I think you should not use the inverse of 0.717.

 

If you rewrite the equation as MSRP + [(0.717) x (Peak - MSRP)], using the same assumptions, then you get a national average selling price of about $59,491.

[Grabber]

First of all, I can't believe you said "Rectal in ear" - what is that exactly?

 

Without disputing any of your assumptions, I think you should not use the inverse of 0.717.

 

If you rewrite the equation as MSRP + [(0.717) x (Peak - MSRP)], using the same assumptions, then you get a national average selling price of about $59,491.

 

Rat: According to Websters "Rectal in ear" is a form of Butter, pronounced Butt Ear, or a form of margeron, or for you old timers nuco.

[RUFDRAFT]

I think I may have wandered into the Twilight Zone.

 

Edith - get me a beer, eh?

[cutter]

:wacko: Man...some of you guys got to much time on your hands....

[Grabber]

:wacko: Man...some of you guys got to much time on your hands....

 

It was either search the threads or watch All In The Family.

[68fastback]

First of all, I can't believe you said "Rectal in ear" - what is that exactly?

 

Without disputing any of your assumptions, I think you should not use the inverse of 0.717.

 

If you rewrite the equation as MSRP + [(0.717) x (Peak - MSRP)], using the same assumptions, then you get a national average selling price of about $59,491.

 

 

"rectal in ear" good one, Rat!

 

Rectalinear = in the shape of a rectangle (in the context of the post, the rectangular x,y area defined by the x,y bounds of the bell curve)

 

Good catch! My mistake ...Not inverse... I meant reciprocal of .717 (i.e. .283) ...thanks

 

Of course, my logic assumes that ADMs approximately follow a bell-curve to begin with -- I suspect they do, but dunno

 

-Dan

[owenkelley]

When the GT500KR is announced (assuming it is), and it has more horsepower than the '07 GT500 there will be a bunch of '07's on EBAY with low mileage being dumped because some guys have to have the latest and greatest of everything. That's when there will be some good buys. If a person doesn't mind buying one with a few miles that will be the way to go. Most people buying these are not the type that are going to take them to dragstrip and flog the crap out of them, most will be buying them as cruisers, and they will make great used cars. That will be when a person can get a good buy on an '07 GT500.

[carnut]

When the GT500KR is announced (assuming it is), and it has more horsepower than the '07 GT500 there will be a bunch of '07's on EBAY with low mileage being dumped because some guys have to have the latest and greatest of everything. That's when there will be some good buys. If a person doesn't mind buying one with a few miles that will be the way to go. Most people buying these are not the type that are going to take them to dragstrip and flog the crap out of them, most will be buying them as cruisers, and they will make great used cars. That will be when a person can get a good buy on an '07 GT500.

 

I'm not sure that it would have more, didn't the KR's of old actually have less horsepower since they dropped the dual fours for a single. The KR (assuming there is) might be nothing more than a couple tweaks of the exterior package. The exodus you describe may not be so dramatic and you may not see the huge price drop.

 

I sold my SVT 03 Terminator last year for just about what I paid for it. I have very good luck with all of the SVT products. In fact I was offered 18,500 for my 99 Lightning about 6 months ago, decided to keep it. So hype or not, me thinks the price of Shelbys is not going to go in the toilet any time soon.

 

My humble opinion, asbestos suit on, fire extinguisher handy, got yard sprinklers going, OK, I'm ready

[Grabber]

When the GT500KR is announced (assuming it is), and it has more horsepower than the '07 GT500 there will be a bunch of '07's on EBAY with low mileage being dumped because some guys have to have the latest and greatest of everything. That's when there will be some good buys. If a person doesn't mind buying one with a few miles that will be the way to go. Most people buying these are not the type that are going to take them to dragstrip and flog the crap out of them, most will be buying them as cruisers, and they will make great used cars. That will be when a person can get a good buy on an '07 GT500.

 

Or keep the GT500, and just add the KR to ones stable. Sounds good.

[Jolly Roger]

If we assume for a moment that in a national market (internet sale) the $66K is a current peak, than the weighted avarage will be the MSRP +((inverse of .717) x (market peak - MSRP)). .717 is the area under a bell curve ralative to the total X-Y (rectalinear) area of the space the curve occupies (assumes the bell curve is a segment of a sine-wave (i.e. a parabola -- they almost always are approximately so). Therefore the true weighted average market value of the car is likely much closer to:

 

MSRP + +((inverse of .717) x (market peak - MSRP)) =

 

$43K + (.283 x ($66K - $43K)) =

 

$43K + (.283 x $23K)

 

$43K + $6.5K = $49.5K

 

 

I'm sorry, but this makes no sense to me. How can you calculate the mean price of a Shelby based on a single data point (your estimated peak price)? You cannot determine the mean or median of any data set with only one data point (unless there is only one data point in the set). It's not possible.

 

I wonder whether you have substituted "MSRP" for "mean" in your equation, and your $49.5K estimate is really 2 Standard Deviations from the "mean" (where mean = MSRP in your example)??? If so, then obviously the mean price for a Shelby isn't MSRP at this point in time, and therefore your estimate is likely off.

 

:wacko:

[carnut]

Or keep the GT500, and just add the KR to ones stable. Sounds good.

 

I like the way you think man. I'm clearing the old boxes out of the garage this weekend.

[martax]

I'm soooooo confused

[carnut]

I'm soooooo confused

 

It helps if you drink a lot :tequila: or use aerosol paint :tease: