Shelby prices and Winter months

[iceman]

Anyone have any thoughts on the pricing starting to drop potentially due to the fact that for the northern US and Canada it's getting to that time when these cars are not likely to see the street as much? Perhaps those that we see on e-bay and not sold pre-build will not command the same ADM since they won't be driven for a few months and demand may drop at this time of year.

 

Maybe one of the car sales guys can tell us - does the Mustang demand drop in the winter? I would think it would...especially the vert. demand.....if demand drops so then should ADM right?

 

I am starting to see buy ino prices on e-bay in the low to mid 60's rather than the no buy it now or 70K range so maybe it will start to inch towards MSRP?????

 

Or is this just wishful thinking?

[Larry T]

Anyone have any thoughts on the pricing starting to drop potentially due to the fact that for the northern US and Canada it's getting to that time when these cars are not likely to see the street as much? Perhaps those that we see on e-bay and not sold pre-build will not command the same ADM since they won't be driven for a few months and demand may drop at this time of year.

 

Maybe one of the car sales guys can tell us - does the Mustang demand drop in the winter? I would think it would...especially the vert. demand.....if demand drops so then should ADM right?

 

I am starting to see buy ino prices on e-bay in the low to mid 60's rather than the no buy it now or 70K range so maybe it will start to inch towards MSRP?????

 

Or is this just wishful thinking?

 

 

I think it's a combination of winter months, I must have it now reaction and stealerships realizing that suckers only come in a few flavors.Hang on a little longer and you will see MSRP.

[kb67]

Something to keep in mind as well is around Jan. 07 you will see the Shelby GT hit the streets. I'd like to think around Feb. prices would be around MSRP or alot closer to it. You have the 08 model year still out there coming alot of dealers have expectations of how much they can get for the GT500 and Shelby GT. I think thats going to make for some interesting times as you have 07 and 08 cars sitting around and maybe some Shelby GTs all sitting on lots then Dodge brings out the Challenger. The ADMs might not be so important then and selling the cars might time will tell though. :D

[JETSOLVER]

Something to keep in mind as well is around Jan. 07 you will see the Shelby GT hit the streets. I'd like to think around Feb. prices would be around MSRP or alot closer to it. You have the 08 model year still out there coming alot of dealers have expectations of how much they can get for the GT500 and Shelby GT. I think thats going to make for some interesting times as you have 07 and 08 cars sitting around and maybe some Shelby GTs all sitting on lots then Dodge brings out the Challenger. The ADMs might not be so important then and selling the cars might time will tell though. :D

 

 

Add to that the Detroit show and any announcements from the DC and GM teams, and hopefully something of substance by Ford. You know that they all want to take some steam out of the Shelby hype for various reasons. I doubt that any honest Detroit suit will tell you they had any idea that the boomers were of a mind to spend beyond 50k for a Mustang. And so they will all flood the market with late product until its all sitting on the lots again.

[RUFDRAFT]

There is a finite number of buyers willing to pay ADM's for a Mustang.

 

Once those buyers have been fed - the Shelbys will start to sit on the ground.

 

Then - as in the past - prices will drop.

 

Patience, my brothers.

[RUFDRAFT]

No. I'm talking about larger markets - like Charlotte - and Atlanta - and Chicago - places that will have larger allotments. I might be very wrong - but I just don't see 9,000 people willing to keep paying ADM's.

 

And - the irony - of course - is that those who complain, but pay the ADM's, are only supporting more ADM's.

 

Stop buying Shelby's - and the prices will fall. Help put the advantage back toward the buyers!

 

Maybe I should form a union.... :happy feet:

[Pointcover]

There is a finite number of buyers willing to pay ADM's for a Mustang.

 

Once those buyers have been fed - the Shelbys will start to sit on the ground.

 

Then - as in the past - prices will drop.

 

Patience, my brothers.

 

 

Well said. I'm guessing February or March you will see MSRP.

[Grabber]

I'm not sure I understand the thought of prices coming down on 2007's? In my area all the cars have been accounted for, if someone drops off a list for some reason then it just goes to the next one on list. All the cars have a deposit on them and an agreement on price unless it is one of the ones they are auctioning off? Are we just talking about EBAY auctions?

 

In My area (Pacific NW - Oregon / Washington) Most dealerships have sold thier GT500's, and the few that have cars still comming in are sold. The 2008 lists have started forming and some are 60 folks long. 9000 cars divided by all the states and Canada tells me that ADM's will not go away. They might drop a bit, but I would not count on it. Too much demand and too little supply. That's what make them a unique and coveted car!

[LSR]

As for prices going down, not likely. What one must understand about the car biz. As long as one car no matter what it is sell for thousands over sticker, then that is the target goal for dealerships even if it means sit on the car for two years or more. For example look at what happen with the Ford GT and other past vehicles. Just last year, a dealer still had a 2000 Cobra R on their showroom. It is now in the owners garage, but that is the norm for well established dealerships and dealership owners in the car biz.

 

And as for most saying they will not pay over sticker. That will change once snow hits the ground and cabin fever settles in. In fact it changes daily as poeple just pay the ADM's to get the car. Basically, no one wants to be ousted for doing what others wouldn't do in public view and do it when no one isn't looking.

 

Why should it matter what one pays for a car as long as it makes them happy. It basically comes down to if one can afford the car no matter what the price. People are getting upset at dealers for asking way over sticker, when it is a biz. to make money.

 

Would you lower the asking price for say your home, car, or other personal items when you know what the it is valued at?

 

I myself have had several contacts from members on this site, looking to purchase GT500's that I have found. And most of these cars have at least a $10K ADM.

 

It all comes down to buying what you want, life is to short to not do or buy something you want just because others disagree.

 

And if the worry of most is saving money, then figure if you are a smoker, beer drinker, and what is spent on other bad habits a year. Would one stop after seeing what is spent on something that dosen't benefit or show for something positive or something you can get enjoyment from.

 

Besides, with seeing what Ford, Chevy, and Dodge is going through finacially, the 2008 GT500's and 2009 Challenger and Camaro could be eleviated. It has happen before.

 

Just my $0.02

[RUFDRAFT]

No one is forcing anyone to pay an ADM.

 

Me? If I had $55-60k to buy a car - I'd probably buy a Vette instead of paying an ADM.

 

When it comes time to sell/trade - it matters not what you paid for the car - just what the book says its worth.

[Grabber]

Yep that darn book. The Blue book. Should be called the "MLB" (money loser book) . Bill Wilson published a good book that was BLUE ! I sure wasted away a ton of money untill I found that book. Probally could of bought 6 GT500's.

[RUFDRAFT]

Yep. And it used to really be a Blue Book. It was a small-sized soft covered weekly publication that usually only dealers had access to. (like they used to use books to check credit cards at gas stations - at least we were supposed to check them before completing a sale!) Back then (the 50's-70's) - the consumer used to really get raped. Thank you Internet!

[johnnyvax]

As for prices going down, not likely. What one must understand about the car biz. As long as one car no matter what it is sell for thousands over sticker, then that is the target goal for dealerships even if it means sit on the car for two years or more. For example look at what happen with the Ford GT and other past vehicles. Just last year, a dealer still had a 2000 Cobra R on their showroom. It is now in the owners garage, but that is the norm for well established dealerships and dealership owners in the car biz.

 

And as for most saying they will not pay over sticker. That will change once snow hits the ground and cabin fever settles in. In fact it changes daily as poeple just pay the ADM's to get the car. Basically, no one wants to be ousted for doing what others wouldn't do in public view and do it when no one isn't looking.

 

Why should it matter what one pays for a car as long as it makes them happy. It basically comes down to if one can afford the car no matter what the price. People are getting upset at dealers for asking way over sticker, when it is a biz. to make money.

 

Would you lower the asking price for say your home, car, or other personal items when you know what the it is valued at?

 

I myself have had several contacts from members on this site, looking to purchase GT500's that I have found. And most of these cars have at least a $10K ADM.

 

It all comes down to buying what you want, life is to short to not do or buy something you want just because others disagree.

 

And if the worry of most is saving money, then figure if you are a smoker, beer drinker, and what is spent on other bad habits a year. Would one stop after seeing what is spent on something that dosen't benefit or show for something positive or something you can get enjoyment from.

 

Besides, with seeing what Ford, Chevy, and Dodge is going through finacially, the 2008 GT500's and 2009 Challenger and Camaro could be eleviated. It has happen before.

 

Just my $0.02

 

 

 

Hi LSR, your $0.02 is a reasonable and logical argument, and your point about life being too short is also well taken, but don't you think that those of us who ponied up a deposit (sometimes a significant amount, based on what I have seen on this forum) long before MSRP was announced, are deserving of, in some way at least, an honest deal (which still allows for a healthy dealer profit even at MSRP) at MSRP? I am not saying that the free market shouldn't dictate what a product or service is worth, but ito me at least, it seems like the ADM dealers are treating the pig and the chicken as equals when it comes to their breakfast!

 

my $0.02 cents from the trough!

 

John

[Grabber]

Here in Oregon and Washington most dealers are out of the cars. They are all done period. To help their customers find a car they are buying other dealers cars for 15K over and then selling them for 20K over to the customer that is asking them to find them a car. This of course includes shipping from dealer to dealer. I found this out from 3 Fleet guys that I trust. Our company buys all Ford work trucks and we use a number of dealerships to buy for our fleet.

[gt500hp]

No one is forcing anyone to pay an ADM.

 

Me? If I had $55-60k to buy a car - I'd probably buy a Vette instead of paying an ADM.

 

When it comes time to sell/trade - it matters not what you paid for the car - just what the book says its worth.

 

 

Kelly Blue Book...........

 

GT500 Shelby coupe

MSRP $42,975 Invoice $39,063.00 ........

New Car Blue Book value........

What consumers are really paying for this vehicle ..............$60,165.00

 

 

Mustang coupe GT Premium......

MSRP $27,550.00 Invoice $25,459.00

 

New Car Blue Book Value

What consumers are really paying for this vehicle ............$27,274.00

 

I wonder which is the better deal when all is said and done. Time well tell!

[Grabber]

Kelly Blue Book...........

 

GT500 Shelby coupe

MSRP $42,975 Invoice $39,063.00 ........

New Car Blue Book value........

What consumers are really paying for this vehicle ..............$60,165.00

Mustang coupe GT Premium......

MSRP $27,550.00 Invoice $25,459.00

 

New Car Blue Book Value

What consumers are really paying for this vehicle ............$27,274.00

 

I wonder which is the better deal when all is said and done. Time well tell!

 

If you are on your 3rd mid life crisis the Mustang GT coupe would be the better deal. I f it is your 1st mid life crisis, then the GT500 is certianly the better deal.

[iceman]

Just because there are lists does not mean they will all buy. Just because 3 dealers have a 60 person list does not mean there are 180 people waiting. I don't know if price will make to MSRP or not - I hope so or I won't get one. This is a toy for me, just a want and not at all a need. I know that time will tell, but I think it is on my side here too. I honestly believe a lot of people may have gotten caught in the hype, over paid, and will end up getting rid of the car because of the cost....Ok maybe not a lot but certainly some got into steeper payments than they should.

 

I also believe when there are more options which are on the way adm will drop. Even if the others have them I can't see there being so much of a demand for any 1 that places won't be willing to deal at least a little...perhaps production catches up in the winter months and demand lessens and we see some on the ground in spring ready to be sold....and as far as the GT goes that is not fair to compare. It is a truely limited production car and something special. This Shelby is meant to be driven, driven hard, and driven often. The GT is really not that type of car.

 

Maybe I am full of it - but I think we're getting ready to see some prices come down a bit....If not maybe I'll pick one up used in 3 yrs at Carmax for 35K

[Grabber]

Just because there are lists does not mean they will all buy. Just because 3 dealers have a 60 person list does not mean there are 180 people waiting. I don't know if price will make to MSRP or not - I hope so or I won't get one. This is a toy for me, just a want and not at all a need. I know that time will tell, but I think it is on my side here too. I honestly believe a lot of people may have gotten caught in the hype, over paid, and will end up getting rid of the car because of the cost....Ok maybe not a lot but certainly some got into steeper payments than they should.

 

I also believe when there are more options which are on the way adm will drop. Even if the others have them I can't see there being so much of a demand for any 1 that places won't be willing to deal at least a little...perhaps production catches up in the winter months and demand lessens and we see some on the ground in spring ready to be sold....and as far as the GT goes that is not fair to compare. It is a truely limited production car and something special. This Shelby is meant to be driven, driven hard, and driven often. The GT is really not that type of car.

 

Maybe I am full of it - but I think we're getting ready to see some prices come down a bit....If not maybe I'll pick one up used in 3 yrs at Carmax for 35K

 

I know that many will drop off the lists. I am on several lists right now that I need to drop off of since I have ordered my car. My point is that when a big town or city only gets 1/2 dozen or 20 cars, or 30 or 50 cars , then the prices will stay High. Ya your right one could wait it out. Time is more valuable to me that waiting it out. I just got a monkey called cancer off my back, and I hope that it never comes back again. My point is, enjoy every day you have, and every thing you do, because it could end at any time. No regrets.

[ratnacage]

9000 sounds like a big number, but when you consider the price-point of this car, there's a whole lot of people that can afford it and are willing to pay extra. The reality is 9000 is likely far short of demand. We're not talking about Ford GT's that are priced in the stratosphere to begin with - that's a much narrower market and doesn't make for a valid comparison.

 

We just received our 6th and the 5 previous didn't last but a few days if at all. And I should add that we haven't had to twist anyone's arm to pay $66k+. It's like here's the price and they ask where to sign - and they're happy. These aren't stupid people either; we're talking well educated, older, are successful in their careers, etc.

 

Any thoughts of GT500's "sitting" on dealers' lots is most likely wishful thinking. Citing stories of that one 2000 Cobra R, or a 2005 GT that's still waiting for someone to pony up $250k is the rare exception and is not representative or predictive of what's going on.

[Grabber]

Rat: Thank you for the clairification. We think on the same wave length.I appreciate your comments. I believe that those who waite will loose out on the oppertunity. I did not want to be one of those people. $58K for THE MOST POWERFUL FACTORY BUILT MUSTANG EVER. It is worth it to me.

[ratnacage]

It is worth it to me.

 

 

That's the only thing that matters.

[Grabber]

9000 sounds like a big number, but when you consider the price-point of this car, there's a whole lot of people that can afford it and are willing to pay extra. The reality is 9000 is likely far short of demand. We're not talking about Ford GT's that are priced in the stratosphere to begin with - that's a much narrower market and doesn't make for a valid comparison.

 

We just received our 6th and the 5 previous didn't last but a few days if at all. And I should add that we haven't had to twist anyone's arm to pay $66k+. It's like here's the price and they ask where to sign - and they're happy. These aren't stupid people either; we're talking well educated, older, are successful in their careers, etc.

 

Any thoughts of GT500's "sitting" on dealers' lots is most likely wishful thinking. Citing stories of that one 2000 Cobra R, or a 2005 GT that's still waiting for someone to pony up $250k is the rare exception and is not representative or predictive of what's going on.

 

Rat: How many GT500's total is allotted to your dealership?

[ratnacage]

Rat: How many GT500's total is allotted to your dealership?

 

 

Officially four or five I think, but we've been getting them from other dealers as demand outstrips supply.

 

Another point no one's really brought up is that international demand is significant. Given the exchange rates these days, the Shelby is a bargain overseas in a world full of econoboxes - and there's plenty of rich people outside the US. Even the "lowly" Mustang GT is a status symbol in Europe that people pay the equivalent of $40k USD or more.

[Alloy Dave]

Stop buying Shelby's - and the prices will fall. Help put the advantage back toward the buyers!

 

I had an economics class in MBA school where we spent significant time studying a topic called "Game Theory". It has to do with consumer behavior, and I think it plays into the ADM thing. RUF Is right, that if EVERYONE stopped paying ADMs, they would go away. However, trying to get everyone on that page is impossible.

 

A few quotes of interest:

 

Isaac Newton - "I can calculate the movements of heavenly bodies, but not the madness of people"

 

Unknown - "The power to constrain an adversary depends upon the power to bind oneself" (RUF, note the word "depends" in there )

 

Here is an MBA presentation on Game Theory as used in auctions. It's dry reading, but the point is that this has been studied at length and is a complex subject.

http://faculty.haas.berkeley.edu/rjmorgan/...17/Auctions.ppt

 

Here is a definition/synopsis of game theory. Note the use of the assumption of "decentralized", meaning in our case that not all 9,000 GT500 potential buyers are in one room together talking about how we should all stick to our guns and not pay ADMs.

 

***** cut and pasted

Game Theory is a misnomer for Multiperson Decision Theory, analyzing the decisionmaking process when there are more than one decision-makers where each agent’s payoff possibly depends on the actions taken by the other agents. Since an agent’s preferences on his actions depend on which actions the other parties take, his action depends on his beliefs about what the others do. Of course, what the others do depends on their beliefs about what each agent does. In this way, a player’s action, in principle, depends on the actions available to each agent, each agent’s preferences on the outcomes, each player’s beliefs about which actions are available to each player and how each player ranks the outcomes, and further his beliefs about each player’s beliefs, ad infinitum.

 

Under perfect competition, there are also more than one (in fact, infinitely many) decision makers. Yet, their decisions are assumed to be decentralized. A consumer tries to choose the best consumption bundle that he can afford, given the prices — without paying attention what the other consumers do. In reality, the future prices are not known. Consumers’ decisions depend on their expectations about the future prices. And the future prices depend on consumers’ decisions today. Once again, even in perfectly competitive environments, a consumer’s decisions are affected by their beliefs about what other consumers do — in an aggregate level.

**** end of cut and paste

 

Man, I've got to stop posting at 6 AM on Saturdays...I get into the goofiest

 

Dave

[CobraCrazy]

If you are on your 3rd mid life crisis the Mustang GT coupe would be the better deal. I f it is your 1st mid life crisis, then the GT500 is certianly the better deal.

 

 

I'm in the middle of my fourth mid-life crisis (maybe my fifth?). I gave serious thought to buying a GT and then spending another 10-15k to make it special (like Ruf's)--seeing the transformation and having something that could be described as one of a kind would have been cool. On the other hand, there was something about having the 5.4 and 500hp, and I really love most of the exterior package of the Shelby (although I've only seen it via pictures) so I went the Shelby route (I'm not that pumped about the Shelby connection--I would have been just as excited had it been "just" a SVT Cobra like my 96). I spent a lot of time, starting over a year ago, trying to find a dealer willing to sell at MSRP (I'm a professor--in other words not rich to say the least) and 90% of the time I was amazed at how little the dealers knew and amazed they treated me so badly (my Ford devotion took a hit)(I called over 50 dealers in seven different states). Finally I found a dealer 450 miles away willing to sell at 5k over--put a deposit down and ordered in March. As I've watched this process where some who ordered in March still don't have so much as a vin# and others ordered in Aug and got a car in Sept, my Ford devotion has taken another hit. But, thankfully, as I read about how much these proud owners who have received their GT500's love driving their car, when I read about four cops calling and asking to come over and see someone's Shelby, when I think about the first time I start mine up and listen to it rumble (?) purr(?) when I day dream (when I should be grading tests)about giving it it's first bath, I get all giddy and I feel 18 again (definition of mid-life crisis?). Now if it would just get here! Maybe next week, probably the week after.

[Grabber]

Officially four or five I think, but we've been getting them from other dealers as demand outstrips supply.

 

Another point no one's really brought up is that international demand is significant. Given the exchange rates these days, the Shelby is a bargain overseas in a world full of econoboxes - and there's plenty of rich people outside the US. Even the "lowly" Mustang GT is a status symbol in Europe that people pay the equivalent of $40k USD or more.

 

Rat: Just as I suspected, your dealers cars are gone for the year. So your searching for another dealers car, and they know they have a hot commodity so they stick a ADM on it and you guys get the car and then stick a finders ADM onto their ADM and now all the sudden the car is 66K. SHELBY GT500'S will not be just sitting around in dealers lots for MSRP anytime soon in my opinion, at least not here in the Pacific NW. Just my 7 cents. EDit: With a ADM, I charge 12 cents.

[martax]

Econ 101 - Supply and demand. Taking a much too short view of things(which all dealers and most buyers are doing) leads to paying too much. We perceive a shortage and demand becomes excessive. Ford has no interest in correcting this perception as it aids an overpopulated dealer network and keeps their(Fords) cash flow (from the GT500 model) moving nicely. Stop and think. Will Ford ever kill the golden goose? What have they got to gain? They will continue produce that car as long as it can be sold in adequate quantities to support mass production. The Ford GT was discontinued because????? - Answer: The market was so small and it was satisfied. Ford could give a rats ass about the Shelby becoming a collectors item in 20 years or more. That is money in the collectors hands not theirs. The Shelby will be available at MSRP and below until

FORD isn't making money. While on that topic, I believe that MSRP will be increased on the 2008 Shelby at a higher % of 2007 than any other FORD model.Why should the dealers make all the money!

[90GT]

Econ 101 - Supply and demand. Taking a much too short view of things(which all dealers and most buyers are doing) leads to paying too much. We perceive a shortage and demand becomes excessive. Ford has no interest in correcting this perception as it aids an overpopulated dealer network and keeps their(Fords) cash flow (from the GT500 model) moving nicely. Stop and think. Will Ford ever kill the golden goose? What have they got to gain? They will continue produce that car as long as it can be sold in adequate quantities to support mass production. The Ford GT was discontinued because????? - Answer: The market was so small and it was satisfied. Ford could give a rats ass about the Shelby becoming a collectors item in 20 years or more. That is money in the collectors hands not theirs. The Shelby will be available at MSRP and below until

FORD isn't making money. While on that topic, I believe that MSRP will be increased on the 2008 Shelby at a higher % of 2007 than any other FORD model.Why should the dealers make all the money!

 

 

 

 

If Ford increases the MSRP on the GT500 for 08 then I'm definitely out. No way I'd spend 50k plus for a Mustang regardless of who's name is on the car.

[5.4 Shelby]

Ford has no interest in correcting this perception as it aids an overpopulated dealer network and keeps their(Fords) cash flow (from the GT500 model) moving nicely. Stop and think. Will Ford ever kill the golden goose? What have they got to gain? They will continue produce that car as long as it can be sold in adequate quantities to support mass production.

 

Ford could give a rats ass about the Shelby becoming a collectors item in 20 years or more. That is money in the collectors hands not theirs.

 

The Shelby will be available at MSRP and below until

FORD isn't making money.

Exactly. Dealerships and consumers both are focusing on the perceived demand of the car right now. The current supply is short because it is early in the production cycle. However, Ford will not cut supply short. They have no reason to. They will continue to make these cars as fast as they can for as long as they can. Most of you were not following Mustangs when they made the Mach 1s and the Cobras. They always say they will only make so many (to create a sense of short supply) and then make as many as they can sell. The Mach 1 was to be only 6000 units for a 1 year run. When they came out hot and sold well, the production became 16,000 over 2 years. They will do that again with this car.

 

Call SVT and ask what the current plan is. They will tell you 8-10k/year "for at LEAST 2 years" HTT himself said "Ford will make one of these for everyone that wants one." To believe they won't is simply getting sucked into the hype. If you guys want to waste $15k, have at it. A year from now, you will look back and realize that you got taken for an extra $15k.

 

It is your money, waste it as you please.

[Grabber]

Exactly. Dealerships and consumers both are focusing on the perceived demand of the car right now. The current supply is short because it is early in the production cycle. However, Ford will not cut supply short. They have no reason to. They will continue to make these cars as fast as they can for as long as they can. Most of you were not following Mustangs when they made the Mach 1s and the Cobras. They always say they will only make so many (to create a sense of short supply) and then make as many as they can sell. The Mach 1 was to be only 6000 units for a 1 year run. When they came out hot and sold well, the production became 16,000 over 2 years. They will do that again with this car.

 

Call SVT and ask what the current plan is. They will tell you 8-10k/year "for at LEAST 2 years" HTT himself said "Ford will make one of these for everyone that wants one." To believe they won't is simply getting sucked into the hype. If you guys want to waste $15k, have at it. A year from now, you will look back and realize that you got taken for an extra $15k.

 

It is your money, waste it as you please.

 

Thanks for the poke Your last sentence is condensending, but thank you anyway for giving me permission to buy a GT500 !