Early Build Cars and ADM

[ShelbyFan]

I have seen a lot of discussion on here about what it really means to have a certain vin number. I am interested in anyone's views as to what significance it will really have to have a so called "early build" car, regardless of the vin number (which is apparently not the true indicator?). I am thinking of the sticker inside the driver door, where it says 06/06 to designate month and year of manufacture for the first cars built. Is that really going to mean anything down the road? Thoughts? Just curious.

 

Also, I have noticed that a number of the ebay auctions ending today seem to be no reserve and are still in the $60k range. I know the topic has been beaten to death, but I am trying to reconcile the fact that the U.S. is now a country of 300 million people, and Ford might build 9,000 or so of these this year. Demand still seems awfully high. Not that all 300m people want one, but it sure seems like a lot do. I mean, it was mentioned in an episode of the Sopranos for gosh sakes, the scene this past season where Tony has been shot and lies in a coma and his son AJ is talking to him in the hospital room....

 

:wacko:

[kb67]

As for a early production car versus a later one it might matter to some folks but to me its not really going to add anything to the car's value. The cars are popular because of what they offer the ebay auctions are trying to capitalize on that and also it looks like its a way for a dealer to get the word out they have one for sale and create more buzz and use the unique and limited tags to push the ADM. As for demand its high for sure but as alot of folks here have pointed out they have been working on getting a car from many sources and are on multiple dealer lists. In my case I went from being in line to get a car with no problem to suddenly seeing the dealer back away and try for a higher ADM after the hype hit. I'm going to wait and see what develops later on this year.

[jrichard]

With respect to ADM...people are paying it for a number of reasons. I'm guessing getting the car sooner is more important to most ADM-folks than trying to figure out if an early production car is worth more 20-40 years from now. That would be a really dumb bet.

 

As far as ADM and total demand, you don't need to know anything about the population of the US, press received by the car, the number of cars each dealer receives, etc. because none of that will help you determine where pricing is now or where it will be in the future. The only thing that matters is the price actual cars are selling for and the trend of the selling price (...and outlier sales don't provide any useful information...so forget that one sold for $100,000 or someone else just picked one up for MSRP).

 

eBay is a GREAT source of information with respect to actual sales prices. Yes you have to weed out suspicious looking sales, etc. But, it's an alternate market for anyone buying from their local dealer...so, even though it represents a relatively small number of sales, it acts as a clearing house for prices. The fact that most sales are stalling out at (or below) MSRP + $15k tells you where the market is today. And, as a benefit, you can track pricing trends via eBay.

 

Another great source of information dealers that are moving way down their list to make sales at a given ADM. Of course, to get accurate information you need to be on a bunch of lists and know your general position on those lists.

 

So, forget the information that doesn't inform. Focus on determining actual sales prices and it's pretty easy to see where the market is and where it is headed.

[JETSOLVER]

Tell you what. Go to the B-J website and see if you can figure out where the biggest profit cars are. Outside of a couple of Black Hemi 'Cuda's and the occaisonal ZL1 Camaro, the money is in restored cars done to a super high standard with modern upgrades built in. If even 1/2 as many as I suspect cars are put away all wrapped up in plastic, they are killing their own market.(Which appeals to me for multiple reasons )I seriously doubt most owners will live long enough to recover the initial $ outlay that many seem to be spending, and without street creed, the car becomes only a footnote to history anyway. Try this; feel good that a few early ones have been put away so that somewhere down the road if somebody needs one to establish a restoration standard to, its there. Feel good that it wasn't you who spent $ only to ignore a machine this good for 25+ years. Add one can of octane boost and DRIVE THE DARN THING LIKE IT OUGHT TO BE DRIVEN!! Return to garage for a red mist recovery beer and smirk, because you got by far the better deal. P.S. The boomers are heading down the golden road and I can promise you the next generations are not going to care anywhere near as much about musclecars. Especially if they are choking on the fumes....

[VNMOUS1]

I have seen a lot of discussion on here about what it really means to have a certain vin number. I am interested in anyone's views as to what significance it will really have to have a so called "early build" car, regardless of the vin number (which is apparently not the true indicator?). I am thinking of the sticker inside the driver door, where it says 06/06 to designate month and year of manufacture for the first cars built. Is that really going to mean anything down the road? Thoughts? Just curious.

 

Also, I have noticed that a number of the ebay auctions ending today seem to be no reserve and are still in the $60k range. I know the topic has been beaten to death, but I am trying to reconcile the fact that the U.S. is now a country of 300 million people, and Ford might build 9,000 or so of these this year. Demand still seems awfully high. Not that all 300m people want one, but it sure seems like a lot do. I mean, it was mentioned in an episode of the Sopranos for gosh sakes, the scene this past season where Tony has been shot and lies in a coma and his son AJ is talking to him in the hospital room....

 

:wacko:

 

 

IMHO the 2007's will be worth more than the '08s simply because they're 1st year and the "anniversary" year of the car's namesake.

 

As for the early build...mine is in the first 570 (they won't tell me exactly, partially because I think it would take a couple of minutes to count them up) and I only know that because that's how many were built to the date my actual car was built. Will it be worth any more? Doubt it.

 

I paid a couple of grand over because I wanted one early, not because I thought it was going to be a rolling 401k someday. This is my daily driver. I personally wouldn't have paid 5k over because being early wasn't THAT important to me. It *was* important enough to pony up a little over MSRP.

 

I love the car. It's fun, it's fast and it never fails to get at least one "thumbs up" regardless of how short a drive I take. It's fun to have something rare. When they're less rare, it'll still be a great car....just less "special" in the eyes of the public, not in mine.

 

If you get one, drive it. Sealing it up does you no good. I saw an '03 Term that was still in the wrap. It had 13 miles on it. It was on eBay. You know what the guy really had? A car that was an early build and had known engine problems that is now out of warranty (time not miles). Think he got a ton of dough for it? Nope!

 

 

 

bj