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First 7,000, then 9,000; might we get 12,000 GT500s this production year?


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See my post #22 here: AAI Flat Rock -- see post #22 and also post #19.

 

If mustangs come off the line every 63 seconds and GT500 IS SET AT 10% (not a max of) of total mustang production, did Ford just indirectly announce there'll be around 12,000 GT500s this production year instead of the 7,000 and then 9,000 previously announced??? I think so, unless a year of production is only 9 months!

 

Could Ford be listening! :)

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I believe that that is wishful thinking. My guess is that production will be adjusted as they go along. More on some days and less on others.

 

Remeber they make Mazda models on this production line & if their sales go up, our Shelby production will stay the same or slow down. Auto manufactures bread & butter come from high volume cars sales not low volume :shift:

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I think we will see 12-13,000. They have the capacity to do it. As long as the suppliers can keep up, why wouldn't they? They need to make the money.

 

 

I'm with 5.4 Shelby.

 

Outside of parts availability, the only reason Ford wouldn't produce as many as possible is if doing so bumped production of other more profitable vehicles. I'm guessing the GT500 is a very high margin vehicle. Most production cars are very low margin...especially in base form. I can't imagine bumping production of base Mustangs or other models (e.g. whatever Mazda is running down the line) will be an issue.

 

Ford has said it will produce as many as will be absorbed...so irritating customers who think they are buying a limited production collectible will not factor into the equation. Those customers simply aren't listening to what Ford is saying

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I think we will see 12-13,000. They have the capacity to do it. As long as the suppliers can keep up, why wouldn't they? They need to make the money.

 

I'll start by saying I have no official information on this, but I thought I heard at one time that the Tremec trans was the bottleneck...I don't think they can make 12,000 per year.

 

Again, this is hearsay.

 

Dave

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I'll start by saying I have no official information on this, but I thought I heard at one time that the Tremec trans was the bottleneck...I don't think they can make 12,000 per year.

 

Again, this is hearsay.

 

Dave

 

 

Yeah, that's what I heard too. But Tremec has said that this trans is the first of a new generation of trans that will become their primary design, so maybe (just speculating) they are highly motivated to ramp-up, especially since they're probably quite expensive (the T56s I think are $1,800 retail or thereabouts). So, in a way, Ford is doing Tremec a great favor buy paying for their ramp-up -- a win-win -- but I don't have any insight on their actual production capacity.

 

Anyone else in here have any insight on that?

 

 

perhaps CAFE standards might get in the way??

 

 

I think that could be part of it -- I suspect that's why the GT is limited to 51% of total mustang production.

 

.

 

 

Remeber they make Mazda models on this production line & if their sales go up, our Shelby production will stay the same or slow down. Auto manufactures bread & butter come from high volume cars sales not low volume :shift:

 

 

Yeah, CWH, thanks... but if I'm thinking about this right (and maybe I'm not) that would mean that they'll just push into another partial shift, I would think.

 

Anyone have any insight into what the Mazda-Mustang mix is approx.?

.

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I believe that that is wishful thinking. My guess is that production will be adjusted as they go along. More on some days and less on others.

 

 

I agree, but if the demand truly is for 120K+ mustangs and Tremec can keep up (big if -- maybe easier later in the production run?) then that sounds like some upward movement in the GT500 nums. And it would be smart for Ford to not just come out and announce another increase for two reasons: the dealers would hate the ADMs falling back and Ford doesn't actually know what the exact demand for Mustang V6 and GTs will be. But they have stated the max ratio of GTs and the actual ratio of GT500s. You have to admit it would be a good way of stating a likely increase (if it is) in GT500s without committing it ;-) And isn;t that exactly how you'd expect them to handle it?

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Based on the latest 2006 Ford sales numbers, here is my best guess on how it's broken down on production.

I don't know what the Marketing Strategy & Mix Recommendations are for each model is, but I think this will help give a rough estimate. I only used only actual SALES numbers FORD just released & worked it out like we do at that plant for quick estimates when a plant is running at full line capacity. I can only assume that when they get back from shut-down that they will be building these on all 3-shifts to meet the 9,000 car target.

 

 

2006 Month of June sales for (ALL) Mustangs = 15,165 cars

 

If the assembly plant is working only 5-days a week that's = 22 full days of production for the month of June

 

22 days x 24Hrs. in a day = 528 production hrs.

 

15,165 cars divided by 528 hrs. = 28.72 Mustangs made per Hour

 

28.72 Mustangs made per Hour = 229.76 Mustangs per 8 hr. shift

 

229.76 Mustangs per 8 hr. shift = 689.28 Mustangs per day

 

A days production run is split into (12) different models or variations of mustangs (V-6's, V-8's, Coupes, Convertibles, GT's & Shelby's)

 

Take 689.28 Mustangs per day divided by (12) different models or variations = only 57.44 cars of each variation model Mustang per day.

 

57.44 cars per day divided by 24 hrs. = 2.39 Shelby's per Hr. = 287.2 Shelby's in a 5 day week

 

2.39 Shelby's per hour/48 weeks at that rate they could make a maximum of 13,786 a year.

 

Now some have suggested that they will only build the Shelby’s on 1st shift only. If they were only building on 1 shift for the entire year at 2.39 cars per Hr. that's 19.2 cars in an 8 Hr. Shift. Now times that by 5 production days and that's = 95.6 cars a week, now times that by 48 weeks & that's = 4,588.8 Shelby cars a year & that wouldn't make the target of 9,000 cars now would it.

 

AAI is not just going to make one model all day long. It just doesn't work that way with J.I.T. PLUS, I haven't even thrown in the number of Mazda's that are on the line also. So don't expect any high volumes of Shelby's to be running off the line anytime soon. It’s a controlled mix that flows down the line so sit back & wait it out, at least you have your order in & it will be made.

 

Again, I think that rate we 1st got was based on a safe launch for the 1st month of production to get all the bugs worked out of the line & to insure quality control standards were met. Automotive Engineers like me don't like to work 2nd & 3rd shifts just to de-bug launch problems when we can do it on 1st shift during a normal business day. Then we can ramp up the line to be trouble free for 2nd & 3rd shift production. Between what Robert said at 2 Shelby’s per Hour & my above estimated rate they can accommodate any up or down movement in sales for any model car that is made on the line. Unfortunately, that means this drags out longer than what we want & we can't always get it our way when Big BILL has a set plan to move Way Forward.

 

Hope this helps.

HotRod

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Based on the latest 2006 Ford sales numbers, here is my best guess on how it's broken down on production.

I don't know what the Marketing Strategy & Mix Recommendations are for each model is, but I think this will help give a rough estimate. I only used only actual SALES numbers FORD just released & worked it out like we do at that plant for quick estimates when a plant is running at full line capacity. I can only assume that when they get back from shut-down that they will be building these on all 3-shifts to meet the 9,000 car target.

2006 Month of June sales for (ALL) Mustangs = 15,165 cars

 

If the assembly plant is working only 5-days a week that's = 22 full days of production for the month of June

 

22 days x 24Hrs. in a day = 528 production hrs.

 

15,165 cars divided by 528 hrs. = 28.72 Mustangs made per Hour

 

28.72 Mustangs made per Hour = 229.76 Mustangs per 8 hr. shift

 

229.76 Mustangs per 8 hr. shift = 689.28 Mustangs per day

 

A days production run is split into (12) different models or variations of mustangs (V-6's, V-8's, Coupes, Convertibles, GT's & Shelby's)

 

Take 689.28 Mustangs per day divided by (12) different models or variations = only 57.44 cars of each variation model Mustang per day.

 

57.44 cars per day divided by 24 hrs. = 2.39 Shelby's per Hr. = 287.2 Shelby's in a 5 day week

 

2.39 Shelby's per hour/48 weeks at that rate they could make a maximum of 13,786 a year.

 

Now some have suggested that they will only build the Shelby’s on 1st shift only. If they were only building on 1 shift for the entire year at 2.39 cars per Hr. that's 19.2 cars in an 8 Hr. Shift. Now times that by 5 production days and that's = 95.6 cars a week, now times that by 48 weeks & that's = 4,588.8 Shelby cars a year & that wouldn't make the target of 9,000 cars now would it.

 

AAI is not just going to make one model all day long. It just doesn't work that way with J.I.T. PLUS, I haven't even thrown in the number of Mazda's that are on the line also. So don't expect any high volumes of Shelby's to be running off the line anytime soon. It’s a controlled mix that flows down the line so sit back & wait it out, at least you have your order in & it will be made.

 

Again, I think that rate we 1st got was based on a safe launch for the 1st month of production to get all the bugs worked out of the line & to insure quality control standards were met. Automotive Engineers like me don't like to work 2nd & 3rd shifts just to de-bug launch problems when we can do it on 1st shift during a normal business day. Then we can ramp up the line to be trouble free for 2nd & 3rd shift production. Between what Robert said at 2 Shelby’s per Hour & my above estimated rate they can accommodate any up or down movement in sales for any model car that is made on the line. Unfortunately, that means this drags out longer than what we want & we can't always get it our way when Big BILL has a set plan to move Way Forward.

 

Hope this helps.

HotRod

 

 

Great info HotRod, and I remember you had posted this a while back. Thanks for reposting here. In fact your earlier is why I assumed they'd be going to three shifts eventually. When I asked on the AAIemployees forum what the mustang rate would be when production ramps up to three shifts, FlashFearless comment to me was 'what makes you think it will ever go to three shifts?' That's when he told me that the line is running at 1 vehicle ever 63 sec.

 

Appreciate your insight which seems to support at least 2 and likely 3 shifts (depending on Mazda Nums) to hit anticipated volumes. And June volume sure seems consistent with the early industry estimates of 120-150K Mustangs

 

Guess I was trying to rationalize your info above with FlashFearless' one car every 63sec (which includes Mazda-6s). I was trying to understand, as your numbers seem to support, whether my 12K gt500s hyposthesis (based on Ford's "is set at 10%") fits with what we do know. Seems like it would unless there's a whole bunch more Mazda-6s to be produced later in the year for some reason.

 

.

 

.

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I just found some Mazda June numbers, but I also found this excellent article about AAI when they first started making the Mustang their. (check the link provided)

 

AAI says they can build 290,000 vehicles at this plant," says Ford COO Jim Padilla, "and expect that to be split 1/3 Mazda6 & 2/3 Mustangs

 

193,333.33 Mustangs per year

 

96,666.67 Mazda 6’s per year between three body styles of Mazda6

 

http://www.autofieldguide.com/articles/110407.html

 

I'll start redoing the productions number based on this new info & it also looks like from the article that they only run 2 shifts? (12 Hr.?)

Edit: changed link

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I'll try to dig up info on the Mazda sales for June. If I do find them I'll redo the numbers & repost to see if we can dial this number in a little better. :party:

 

 

 

On another note, going to post office today. Putting in an extra item for you. Hope you enjoy.

 

John

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I just found some Mazda June numbers, but I also found this excellent article about AAI when they first started making the Mustang their. (check the link provided)

 

AAI says they can build 290,000 vehicles at this plant," says Ford COO Jim Padilla, "and expect that to be split 1/3 Mazda6 & 2/3 Mustangs

 

193,333.33 Mustangs per year

 

96,666.67 Mazda 6’s per year between three body styles of Mazda6

 

http://www.autofieldguide.com/articles/article_print1.cfm

I'll start redoing the productions number based on this new info & it also looks like from the article that they only run 2 shifts? (12 Hr.?)

 

 

Super info, Hot Rod... you are the man!

 

What I'm figuring, if the 10%/12K logic is good (based on June could be higher?) then Tremec is the only limiter. I can;t believe Ford would state the 10% num if Tremec hasn't already committed to higher nums -- it would be foolish of Ford to intentionally put them in the squeeze. So if 12K or more is a good num, then the ADMs should come down and do so more quickly -- this is good for most everyone, I think, especially if the magazines pick up the higher production nums.

 

fyi, I can't get that link to the article... the link loads, but it's to a Automotive Design & Production boilerplate page.

 

Thanks, HotRod

 

-Dan

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