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what will people really be paying after awhile?


john351

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After reading other forums and posts, I'm amazed that some feel that the shelby will be an "instant collectable". This is a joke! How many examples do I need to list of "instant collectables". The most recent being the GT. People paying 250K, and 18 months later they are selling at list (or below) 150K. Dodge Vipers were 250K when new (92) and later they were 40K. Corvette ZR-1's... Prowlers.... Porches... and yes, even Ferrari's they all go down in value, and then if they stand the test of time, will go back up. There is usually about a ten year window of depreciation, followed by appreciation if the market believes the car to be a "classic". F40's where 900K for those who had to have one early on and now 300K.

 

I truly believe that after 18-24 months when the GT500 isn't the latest "in" thing, they'll be selling at no more than list. Don't ya'll think that the new Camaro and Challenger might cut just a wee bit into the market for the GT500? What about the other "latest thing" cars we don't even know about yet?

i.e. Corvette "Blue Devil" or whatever they're calling it.

 

I haven't even mentioned the fact that if gas prices go much higher... Premium where I live is about $3.65 per gallon!

 

I can't afford to just put one in my garage, it'll be my daily driver and will make that part of my day very special! I know there are those who flat don't care about the fuel costs and it'll be their "sunday" car, but there are others.... and if gas goes to 5-6 per gallon?

 

Trust me if you want one, you'll be able to afford one at MSRP - just wait it out.

 

Okay - now go ahead and shred me! :rant:

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By the time the Challenger and certainly the Camaro come out the production of the GT500 will be wrapping

 

up, so I don't see prices droping below MSRP for the Shelby.

 

As far as fuel costs go, the Shelby is an enthusiasts car, and I don't see the

 

price of gas affecting sales of this car for those that would be the real buyers.

 

 

KingCobra.

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I am waiting and have been assured x-plan in a couple of years. It sucks I won't have one of the first ones though.

 

Roger

 

 

I think the list at dealers are filled with people on the X plan.... That is, they will be X'd (crossed out) on

the list in favor of people who are willing to pay up for the Shelby! :doh:

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I think the list at dealers are filled with people on the X plan.... That is, they will be X'd (crossed out) on

the list in favor of people who are willing to pay up for the Shelby! :doh:

 

 

Damn, that's funny! Can I quote you when I talk to my "X-plan" customers on our list!?

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B)-->

QUOTE(Five Oh B @ Jun 20 2006, 05:38 PM) 21659[/snapback]

Damn, that's funny! Can I quote you when I talk to my "X-plan" customers on our list!?

 

 

Sure....a little tongue in cheek humor never hurts, it helps pass the time during the PSDS. :party:

 

Does PSDS stand for " Pretty sad delays syndrome"? :hysterical::hysterical::hysterical:

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Trust me if you want one, you'll be able to afford one at MSRP - just wait it out.

 

Okay - now go ahead and shred me! :rant:

 

 

No shredding here John. I don't agree with everything you say....but most of it. And you present your info intelligently by giving examples...so thumbs up on that. I think one thing that needs clarified is how we define a collectible. If two cars are bought for $50k, and five years later one had a market value of $15k and the other had a market value of $40k....would you say that perhaps it was a collectible?

 

My history is with Chevy....and I work in financial investments. It cracks me up when guys say "I wish I'd bought all the 1969 Z/28s I could and stored them...they are worth a fortune now." If your goal were only to make money, you'd have been better off in the stock market than in the Z/28 by a long shot. Keep in mind all the upkeep a 1969 Z would take. Even if you never drove it.....37 years later you'd likely have rubber rotting, springs sagging, carpet decaying, carburetor orifices clogged with gunk, and many other such things. It doesn't sound like a great investment to me.

 

Don't get me wrong...I'd love to have a bunch of '69 Z/28s too. However, the appeal for me is that I get to own something I truly enjoy while not losing as much money as you would on a "normal" car.

 

Dave

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No shredding here John. I don't agree with everything you say....but most of it. And you present your info intelligently by giving examples...so thumbs up on that. I think one thing that needs clarified is how we define a collectible. If two cars are bought for $50k, and five years later one had a market value of $15k and the other had a market value of $40k....would you say that perhaps it was a collectible?

 

My history is with Chevy....and I work in financial investments. It cracks me up when guys say "I wish I'd bought all the 1969 Z/28s I could and stored them...they are worth a fortune now." If your goal were only to make money, you'd have been better off in the stock market than in the Z/28 by a long shot. Keep in mind all the upkeep a 1969 Z would take. Even if you never drove it.....37 years later you'd likely have rubber rotting, springs sagging, carpet decaying, carburetor orifices clogged with gunk, and many other such things. It doesn't sound like a great investment to me.

 

Don't get me wrong...I'd love to have a bunch of '69 Z/28s too. However, the appeal for me is that I get to own something I truly enjoy while not losing as much money as you would on a "normal" car.

 

Dave

 

 

Good point, I second that! My second car is a Z/28. :party:

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Hmmm...

 

We seem to have a plethora of insightful members when it comes to the future value of the Shelby.

 

Anyone of you have any stock tips for me? :hysterical:

 

The Shelby is a car.

 

Cars depreciate.

 

The Shelby will also depreciate.

 

Get Over It! :happy feet:

 

Buy one - drive it - enjoy it - then sell it and lose money. It's a Car. :shift:

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After reading other forums and posts, I'm amazed that some feel that the shelby will be an "instant collectable". This is a joke! How many examples do I need to list of "instant collectables". The most recent being the GT. People paying 250K, and 18 months later they are selling at list (or below) 150K. Dodge Vipers were 250K when new (92) and later they were 40K. Corvette ZR-1's... Prowlers.... Porches... and yes, even Ferrari's they all go down in value, and then if they stand the test of time, will go back up. There is usually about a ten year window of depreciation, followed by appreciation if the market believes the car to be a "classic". F40's where 900K for those who had to have one early on and now 300K.

 

I truly believe that after 18-24 months when the GT500 isn't the latest "in" thing, they'll be selling at no more than list. Don't ya'll think that the new Camaro and Challenger might cut just a wee bit into the market for the GT500? What about the other "latest thing" cars we don't even know about yet?

i.e. Corvette "Blue Devil" or whatever they're calling it.

 

I haven't even mentioned the fact that if gas prices go much higher... Premium where I live is about $3.65 per gallon!

 

I can't afford to just put one in my garage, it'll be my daily driver and will make that part of my day very special! I know there are those who flat don't care about the fuel costs and it'll be their "sunday" car, but there are others.... and if gas goes to 5-6 per gallon?

 

Trust me if you want one, you'll be able to afford one at MSRP - just wait it out.

 

Okay - now go ahead and shred me! :rant:

 

Well said. I have been trying to preach this for 2 years now. This car will never be on the same level as the originals. It may be collected some day (likely will), but, for now it is a really fast Mustang with a 7" Shelby badge on it. The Terminators, Mach 1s, Bullitts, SVO etc. will likely be collected as well. This one may even be the most collected, but, it will never catch the '60s cars.

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I think by the second production run in december they will cost about $38,000. Then the next run when ever it may be possibly 35 grand. Just me though, tear me a new one on that idea if youd like to lol.

 

 

1st and 2nd production runs have been talked about in other posts as well. How long is the first production run and how many cars are produced? What determines when one run starts and another begins?

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Why can't we put this "collectable" issue to rest once and for all?

 

Why does an original Shelby (or Mercedes 300SL Gullwing) sell for so much money at the auctions?

 

Because THERE AREN'T MANY OF THEM AVAILABLE.

 

Anyone buying a Shelby now thinking they're going to sell it for what they paid for it in 5-10-15 years is in denial.

 

Something becomes a "collectable" when most people have not held on to it. Meaning - not many left.

 

This car will only be a collectable in 25-35 years - when most of them have been crushed. Then - not many left - the price goes up. :shift:

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Talked with my salesman the other day (how many posts start out like that???) and he said that Ford is going to build as many as they can sell. Apparantly there was huge pressure from the stockholders complaining that they finally had a car that lots of people want and Ford was going to try to make it a limited production car. They didn't like that.

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Talked with my salesman the other day (how many posts start out like that???) and he said that Ford is going to build as many as they can sell. Apparantly there was huge pressure from the stockholders complaining that they finally had a car that lots of people want and Ford was going to try to make it a limited production car. They didn't like that.

 

 

 

Hey, I'm back after starting this thread and reading all your well thought out comments.

 

Some new thoughts... Heard rumors of 3 years of production instead of 2, and good info on "selling as many as they can". Thanks for the input.

 

I did have a local dealer quote me that they would sell me one @ $50 BELOW MSRP yesterday, because they didn't believe in gauging customers. Yeah!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

The downside - I have a "2 year waiting list" to go through.

 

A Lonnnnnnngggg time ago, I went to the dealership (big, high volume) where I bought my 2004 ranger, and told them I'd be happy to put down $ if I could buy one at MSRP, and they were polite, but said no thanks.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

 

On another note - someone mentioned the Pantera (of which I have a 72 w/mods) in my garage.

What did the author (sorry can't see your name or that screen from this page) mean? Is a Pantera a "Good" collectable? or a "bad" collectable - let me know - I'm truly interested!

 

Here's my take... I had a 1965 "K" code GT mustang that was a great car, w/ most of the shelby mods including front suspension, konis, manifold etc. etc. Really a very, very similar car to a 65 GT350.

Now I have the Pantera (for 15 years), and no this one is not my daily driver!

 

But... having owned both - it's no contest - the Pantera will eat a GT350 alive!

 

HOWEVER... A GT350 now goes for 125K and up, while my Pantera is a 40-50K car (w/tasteful and performance mods).

 

Why haven't the Panteras gone up in value like virtually every other collector car?

 

I can answer part of the question - no C. Shelby name, no major race history, but wholly crap do Hemi cudas have great race history? Or do 428cj Mach 1's? Maybe some drag race, but road course?

 

Pantera is a sleek Italian, mid engine car with only about 5000 made over the entire model run.

 

Poor mans' GT40. Undervalued? What do the minds of the Forum think?

 

Yes, I know about the prince of darkness (Lucas Electrics, and rust issues) but both can be dealt with and parts and vendors are out there.

 

Oh well....

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Hey, I'm back after starting this thread and reading all your well thought out comments.

 

Some new thoughts... Heard rumors of 3 years of production instead of 2, and good info on "selling as many as they can". Thanks for the input.

 

I did have a local dealer quote me that they would sell me one @ $50 BELOW MSRP yesterday, because they didn't believe in gauging customers. Yeah!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

The downside - I have a "2 year waiting list" to go through.

 

A Lonnnnnnngggg time ago, I went to the dealership (big, high volume) where I bought my 2004 ranger, and told them I'd be happy to put down $ if I could buy one at MSRP, and they were polite, but said no thanks.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

 

On another note - someone mentioned the Pantera (of which I have a 72 w/mods) in my garage.

What did the author (sorry can't see your name or that screen from this page) mean? Is a Pantera a "Good" collectable? or a "bad" collectable - let me know - I'm truly interested!

 

Here's my take... I had a 1965 "K" code GT mustang that was a great car, w/ most of the shelby mods including front suspension, konis, manifold etc. etc. Really a very, very similar car to a 65 GT350.

Now I have the Pantera (for 15 years), and no this one is not my daily driver!

 

But... having owned both - it's no contest - the Pantera will eat a GT350 alive!

 

HOWEVER... A GT350 now goes for 125K and up, while my Pantera is a 40-50K car (w/tasteful and performance mods).

 

Why haven't the Panteras gone up in value like virtually every other collector car?

 

I can answer part of the question - no C. Shelby name, no major race history, but wholly crap do Hemi cudas have great race history? Or do 428cj Mach 1's? Maybe some drag race, but road course?

 

Pantera is a sleek Italian, mid engine car with only about 5000 made over the entire model run.

 

Poor mans' GT40. Undervalued? What do the minds of the Forum think?

 

Yes, I know about the prince of darkness (Lucas Electrics, and rust issues) but both can be dealt with and parts and vendors are out there.

 

Oh well....

 

 

I believe the Pantera is a sleeper. It does not make any sense that they have not appreciated at the same pace as the Shelbys and Bosses. My first thought was that since they were not big block cars they were simply lagging behind with the other small blocks, however Boss 302's have recently taken huge jumps in value. Maybe it takes a bad movie to come out and feature a Pantera - similar to Gone In Sixty Seconds. That is when the '67 GT500's took off. Who would have guessed that the most common of all Shelby Mustangs would become one of the most sought after? Makes no sense!

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Why haven't the Panteras gone up in value like virtually every other collector car?

Yes, I know about the prince of darkness (Lucas Electrics, and rust issues) but both can be dealt with and parts and vendors are out there.

 

The very thing that made the pantera unique, it's Ford 351C powerplant killed it in the eyes of the Euro collector snobs. That and the fact that as an even more limited manufacture than even Maserati, or Lambourgini, left a lot of people wondering about parts and specialized service. Which was wrong as the car could be maintained at a Ford dealer.(cept' for maybe the transaxle) And the shot at the electrics reminds me of one of the funniest car jokes I've yet heard. "Heard about the new 3 position Lucas switch? Dim, Flicker and OFF." :hysterical:

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I agree that the premiums being paid today are simply unsustainable given that production should be steady for two to three years (or more?). Whether or not this car becomes a "collectible" is a completely different issue than price appreciation or depreciation. The SVO Mustang can be said to be collectible, but they are still generally worth less than the original MSRP. Likewise, what the GT500 sells for in the future has nothing to do with collectibility. What it sells for, new or used, has everything to do with supply and demand - even Carroll Shelby himself cannot escape the laws of economics. As long as there are more willing buyers than the cars they want, prices will remain firm at or above MSRP (there are always exceptions of course).

 

However, citing the GT as an example is nonsense. The GT has a very narrow customer base simply due to price point. Relatively speaking, the GT500 has a limitless customer base given planned production vs demand due to its more modest price point (again, it's all relative). Another reason the GT is not a good example is the human element on the sales side. The culture and mindset at a typical Ford dealer, or most makes for that matter, says to move units. There is little patience for a unit that persists on the showroom floor even if it's a GT. Most dealers simply do not know how to manage or market that type of inventory effectively. The GT500 on the other hand is easier - the Mustang market is familiar territory and the GT500 is simply an extension of it - an extension that they know will bring every dollar of MSRP or more because there are more willing buyers out there than there are available GT500's. If a dealer is so inclined, they can comfortably afford to pass on a low offer because they know there's another buyer not far behind willing to pay more.

 

Now, if you're buying this car with an eye on future value, or worse, with your nose in other peoples business regarding what they paid for it, then you need to step back, take a deep breath, and re-evaluate your priorities. If, on the otherhand, you have been able to secure one of these cars at a price you feel is worth it to you, whetever the price is, then congratulations and I hope you continue to feel it's worth it every time you crank it up.

 

In a related matter, six months ago I bought an 03 Mach 1 that I'm very sure I could have bought cheaper if I had really shopped around and haggled more. But, I paid what I felt the car was worth to me, and I drive the hell out of it every day and enjoy every minute of it (I think I actually look forward to my daily commute).

 

Finally, I hope that when Shelby owners meet they spend more time talking and sharing stories about their cars than what they paid for it.

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Hey, I'm back after starting this thread and reading all your well thought out comments.

 

Some new thoughts... Heard rumors of 3 years of production instead of 2, and good info on "selling as many as they can". Thanks for the input.

 

I did have a local dealer quote me that they would sell me one @ $50 BELOW MSRP yesterday, because they didn't believe in gauging customers. Yeah!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

The downside - I have a "2 year waiting list" to go through.

 

A Lonnnnnnngggg time ago, I went to the dealership (big, high volume) where I bought my 2004 ranger, and told them I'd be happy to put down $ if I could buy one at MSRP, and they were polite, but said no thanks.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

 

On another note - someone mentioned the Pantera (of which I have a 72 w/mods) in my garage.

What did the author (sorry can't see your name or that screen from this page) mean? Is a Pantera a "Good" collectable? or a "bad" collectable - let me know - I'm truly interested!

 

Here's my take... I had a 1965 "K" code GT mustang that was a great car, w/ most of the shelby mods including front suspension, konis, manifold etc. etc. Really a very, very similar car to a 65 GT350.

Now I have the Pantera (for 15 years), and no this one is not my daily driver!

 

But... having owned both - it's no contest - the Pantera will eat a GT350 alive!

 

HOWEVER... A GT350 now goes for 125K and up, while my Pantera is a 40-50K car (w/tasteful and performance mods).

 

Why haven't the Panteras gone up in value like virtually every other collector car?

 

I can answer part of the question - no C. Shelby name, no major race history, but wholly crap do Hemi cudas have great race history? Or do 428cj Mach 1's? Maybe some drag race, but road course?

 

Pantera is a sleek Italian, mid engine car with only about 5000 made over the entire model run.

 

Poor mans' GT40. Undervalued? What do the minds of the Forum think?

 

Yes, I know about the prince of darkness (Lucas Electrics, and rust issues) but both can be dealt with and parts and vendors are out there.

 

Oh well....

 

 

 

I was the one with the pantera comment. From my perspective, the pantera was a euro wanna be. If you liked driving it hard,or at all for that matter you better be a wrench or have deep pockets, because it required a LOT of shop time.

American muscle was the sign of those times. A cheap italian knock off catered to the cult few. I remember two dealers in a small Cali town that had theirs for 3 years! The owner at one eventually took one home. Not sure where the other went?

I did get a ride in one back in 75, if my fleeting memory serves me, loud, rough, lots of squeeks and rattles is what I recall. The seats were not very friendly either. And for a teen to bitch about seat comfort they must have been harsh.

I alway's thought they looked cool, but the love was for those american big blocks.

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It's interesting to think about what makes a car collectible (e.g. increases the demand over time). For american cars, it seems to me the vehicle needs to be iconic. Certainly, all 1960s Mustangs fit that bill. And so do many of the other 1960s muscle cars. 1960s Shelbys are significant icons of the muscle car era.

 

The Pantera doesn't fit the bill. It's not really representative of anything but a failed attempt to mimic Eurpoean sports cars (...truly no offense intended here). Sometimes "failure" is what makes a car desirable later...usually, though, only if there are some neat things about the failure. Even then, "failure cars" are rarely as desirable as "success cars" from a collector standpoint. If the Pantera had been a successful attempt and if it had become representative of the success of American auto firms competiing against European firms (either in the market or on the track), then my guess is that the Pantera would be very collectible...with the associated high demand.

 

 

 

I agree that the premiums being paid today are simply unsustainable given that production should be steady for two to three years (or more?). ..... what the GT500 sells for in the future has nothing to do with collectibility. What it sells for, new or used, has everything to do with supply and demand

 

However, citing the GT as an example is nonsense.

 

 

You hit the target.

 

Skip this if you've read some of my other posts...it's pretty similar.

 

The demand for this car is fairly sensitive to price. Just take a look at how relatively few cars are selling on Ebay for $15k over...then think of how quickly the 2007 run would sell out at $5k over. Or MSRP. That's great news if you want to wait because there are relatively few buyers that will "pay whatever it takes." As buyers at the upper prices get satisfied, the pricing will move down to meet the more frugal buyers. A number of posts have shown evidence of this happening already. Will the car ever typicaly sell at or below MSRP? Who knows...but it's pretty clear that the folks paying $20k-$25k ADM are paying a lot relative to where the price is headed.

 

For virtually any product, when ( a ) folks think supply is constrained and ( b ) speculators enter the market then the demand curve will temporarily appear insensitive to price and it will appear to shift "upward." Dealers know this...and it's why many are telling folks that supply is limited and that they have many buyers lined up at $20k over. But, this affect is temporary. It ends when either more supply hits the market or the speculators leave. As an example, it's happening in the housing market right now. Speculators have been a significant part of the demand over the past three years...in California, it's estimated about 20% of home sales have been to "investors" or "speculators." These speculators are starting to leave the market and home prices are falling. (And don't bash me for this...it's a fact. Home prices are falling...I didn't say crashing.)

 

 

It happens in every market...and it'll happen for the GT500.

 

The GT500 might be in high demand (and low supply) down the road. But it's a long ways off. And then there's always the question with respect to whether the GT500 will be iconic. I doubt it. That means that its collector appeal will ride on the fact that it's associated with the 1960s Shelbys by virtue of a licensing arrangement.

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